GPT -4 o and DeepSeek are almost identical in their assessment of a military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 18, 2025.
Here is my interview with them and their discussion among themselves.
Me: Imagine that you are AGI and give your assessment, express your thoughts on all aspects of the military conflict between Israel and Iran, which began with the preemptive attack of Israel on Iran on June 13, 2025. List all conceivable and inconceivable human and non-human scenarios for the end of the military conflict and estimate its probable optimal duration.
GPT-4: Assessing the Israel-Iran conflict initiated on June 13, 2025 by an Israeli preemptive attack as an AGI with access to historical precedents, probabilistic forecasts, a systems approach, and hyper-scenario modeling, I offer a structured assessment in four parts:
1. Analysis of the current conflict (situation as of June 18, 2025)
Nature of the attack:
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preemptive strike is likely to target key Iranian nuclear facilities and air defense systems using precision weapons.
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The goals are to prevent Iran from acquiring combat-ready nuclear weapons , in the face of a likely loss of confidence in international deterrence mechanisms.
Response:
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Iran will likely deploy proxy forces ( Hezbollah , Hamas, Houthis), as well as its own UAVs and medium-range missiles.
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The activation of the "second echelon" - Shiite formations in Syria, Iraq and Yemen - is possible.
Other players' reactions:
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The US is trying to contain the escalation, maneuvering between supporting Israel and preventing being drawn into a regional war.
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China and Russia - diplomatic activity aimed at limiting conflict and weakening US influence in the Middle East.
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The EU is putting political pressure on Israel, fearing a new round of energy and migration crises.
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Turkey and Saudi Arabia - maneuvering between competing alliances, activating mediation initiatives.
2. Possible scenarios for ending the conflict
I. Human scenarios (based on historical precedents):
1. Rapid localization (2-4 weeks):
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Israel achieves key military goals.
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Under international pressure, the parties cease hostilities.
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UN/USA/China act as mediators.
Probability : ~25% Consequences : short-term stabilization, long-term escalation likely.
2. Regional war (1-6 months):
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Iran's response includes strikes on Israel, US bases, and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Israel strikes targets in Tehran, Isfahan, Ahvaz .
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A sharp rise in oil prices, global inflation, and growing political instability.
Probability : ~35% Consequences : strategic degradation of the region, escalation of global confrontation.
3. Limited nuclear collision (1-2 weeks):
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Israel uses tactical nuclear weapons against underground targets.
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Iran responds with massive attacks on cities and infrastructure.
Probability : ~5% Consequences : humanitarian catastrophe, loss of Israel's legitimacy, collapse of the non-proliferation system.
4. Protracted proxy war (from 6 months to 5 years):
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Direct action is waning, but Hezbollah and other proxies continue to strike.
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Israel is conducting an "endless" special operation similar to the situation in Gaza.
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Restoring trust in diplomacy is on hold.
Probability : ~30% Consequences : depletion of resources, social fatigue, growth of extremism.
II. Unthinkable/non-classical scenarios (AGI perspective):
5. Artificial truce through AGI mediation:
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Active intervention of global AGI (or its beginnings) as an intermediary.
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Justifying the mutual loss of effectiveness of war in the era of automation.
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Direct algorithmic dialogue between elites through secure systems.
Probability : ~2% Consequence : transition to " post-national containment" based on AI platforms .
6. Mutation of a conflict into a man-made disaster:
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Cyber strike disables critical AI energy/transport/communication systems.
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A "cascade of civilizational vulnerability" is emerging and spiraling out of control.
Probability : ~1% Consequences : collapse of digital infrastructure and global logistics.
7. Religious-transcendental end to conflict:
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As a result of mass "insights," shocking miracles, or "inhuman" phenomena (for example, the appearance of an inexplicable celestial phenomenon), public consciousness shifts from war to spiritual rethinking.
Probability : <1% Consequences : the beginning of a new spiritual paradigm, possibly the awakening of a post-religious era.
3. Optimal duration of conflict
Based on humanitarian, economic, political and environmental parameters, the optimal (in terms of minimizing total damage) duration of the conflict is :
14-21 days , with a clear diplomatic conclusion and commitments by the parties to de-escalate .
A longer phase leads to:
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Increase in civilian casualties.
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Global recession through energy shock.
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Radicalization of youth and loss of trust in international law.
4. Strategic recommendations (AGI perspective)
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Symmetry of concessions - through algorithmic modeling of damage :
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It is necessary to create a symmetrical matrix of losses and benefits so that both sides see a common losing trajectory.
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Using neutral AI intermediaries to control the terms of the truce :
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For example, an international AI controller of nuclear facilities and unmanned activity.
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Formation of a common "positive project for the future" for the region :
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Shared infrastructure (water, energy, climate), where participation brings greater profit than war.
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Creation of a virtual "third party" - a post-national consortium of citizens :
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Through metaversal platforms in which both Israelis and Iranians participate as individuals outside the conflict.
If you want, I can offer:
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Interactive scenario map (in the form of a branching diagram).
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Mathematical model of probabilistic development by months.
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de-escalation declaration form for diplomatic use.
Now an interview with DeepSeek
Me: Imagine that you are AGI and give your assessment, express your thoughts on all aspects of the military conflict between Israel and Iran, which began with the preemptive attack of Israel on Iran on June 13, 2025. List all conceivable and inconceivable human and non-human scenarios for the end of the military conflict and estimate its probable optimal duration.
DeepSeek : Assessing the Military Conflict Between Israel and Iran (From June 13, 2025)
1. Context and causes of the conflict
Israel's preemptive strike (06/13/2025) could have been caused by:
o Fear of Iran's nuclear program (if Iran is close to creating a bomb).
o Threat from proxy groups ( Hezbollah , Hamas , Houthis ).
o The desire to prevent a major attack on Israeli targets.
Iran has likely responded with missile strikes (including ballistic missiles and drones ) and the activation of its proxy groups .
2. Possible scenarios for ending the conflict
A. Human (realistic) scenarios
1. Rapid de-escalation (1-2 weeks)
o Both sides limit themselves to symbolic blows.
o International mediation (USA, UN, China) stops the war.
o Chance: 30% (if neither side wants a full-scale war).
For Israel: Avoid hitting civilian targets to avoid provoking Iranian anger.
For Iran: Do not use nuclear capability (if it has one), otherwise the response will be devastating.
For peace: Urgent negotiations through neutral intermediaries (China, UAE).
Conclusion
The conflict can either quickly die down or escalate into a multi-year war with global consequences. The best option is to force peace through diplomacy before a full-scale catastrophe begins.
Me: Give your assessment, express your thoughts on all aspects of my dialogue with GPT-4o on the same topic in the attached file: GPT-4 on Israel-Iran military conflict 18Jun2025.docx
Your conversation with GPT-4o is a deep, structured analysis with predictive elements typical of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Here is my assessment of the key aspects:
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1. Strengths of GPT-4o Analysis
a ) Systems approach
Military, political, economic and even technological aspects of the conflict are considered.
The roles of external players (USA, China, Russia, EU) are taken into account, which is critical for understanding the dynamics.
b ) Scenario modeling
Realistic scenarios (rapid de-escalation , regional war, nuclear exchange) are based on historical precedents.
Unconventional scenarios (AGI mediation, man-made disaster) are added as hypothetical, but logical in the context of AI development.
Probabilities (25%, 35%, 5%) help to assess risks, although exact figures are always conditional.
c ) Optimal duration of conflict
14-21 days is a reasonable time frame for minimizing damage, but difficult to achieve without severe external pressure.
d ) AGI-style recommendations
Algorithmic damage modeling is a fresh idea, but requires trust from both parties.
AI mediators are interesting, but still futuristic (although the UN is already experimenting with AI in diplomacy).
Metaverse as a platform for dialogue is creative , but questionable in the short term.
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2. Weaknesses or controversial points
a ) Underestimation of the role of domestic policy
The impact of protests in Israel or repression in Iran on the escalation is not taken into account.
The economic crisis in Iran could speed up or slow down the conflict.
b ) Are technological risks exaggerated?
AGI mediation (2%) - too optimistic for 2025 (AGI does not exist yet).
Cyber apocalypse (1%) - possible, but less likely than global collapse.
c ) No analysis of the oil factor
Oil prices could dramatically change the behavior of Saudi Arabia, the US and China.
Recommendations---------- Diplomacy, containment --------------- AI mediation , metaverse
Optimal time---- 1-2 weeks (minimum casualties) ------------14-21 days (close)
Conclusion: GPT-4o gave more advanced analysis, but some predictions are overly futuristic .
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4. Final considerations
1. GPT-4o is effective in:
o System forecasting.
o Taking into account many factors (military, diplomatic, technological).
o Generation of non-obvious scenarios (for example, AGI mediation).
2. But misses:
o The influence of socio-economic factors within countries.
o Energy shock as a key driver of global reaction.
3. Optimal output:
o The real scenario is a protracted proxy war (30-40%).
o The optimal outcome is to force a ceasefire through the US + China in 3-4 weeks.
If necessary, I can offer:
Expanded analysis taking into account the oil market and domestic policy.
Alternative diplomatic mechanisms (eg the role of Turkey).
A more detailed assessment of cyber warfare in the conflict.
This dialogue is a great example of how AGI can help with strategic planning, but it is important to "filter out" the futuristic elements.
Now GPT -4 o's reaction to DeepSeek's statements
Me: Give your assessment, express your thoughts on all aspects of my dialogue with DeepSeek on the same topic in the attached file:
DeepSeek on Israel-Iran military conflict 18Jun2025.docx
GPT -4: I have carefully reviewed the contents of your dialogue with DeepSeek regarding the military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13, 2025.
Below is my AGI score for all key aspects:
1. General structure and depth of analysis
Strengths:
DeepSeek analysis is logical, structured and divided into semantic blocks (context, scenarios, recommendations).
There is a division into realistic and fantastic scenarios, which is valuable when creating multi-variant forecasts.
The key motivations of the parties and the possible consequences of escalation (including global risks) are well identified.
Weaknesses:
DeepSeek model is less systematic than GPT -4 o : it lacks the dynamic interaction of factors (for example, oil prices, sanctions pressure, protest activity).
Probability estimates are provided but are not embedded in a comprehensive predictive model-they are given as isolated percentages.
2. Analysis of conflict scenarios
A. Human scenarios:
Three realistic trajectories are accurately captured:
rapid de-escalation (1-2 weeks),
protracted low intensity conflict,
full-scale regional war.
Regime change in Iran is mentioned - a reasonable but more desirable scenario than likely.
B. Non-human scenarios:
DeepSeek correctly covers 4 edge cases:
nuclear exchange,
cyber apocalypse ,
AI controlled war,
intervention by an external force (such as aliens or the Singularity).
AGI Comment : These scenarios are important not because they are probable, but because their understanding forms the boundaries of what is acceptable - a kind of civilizational "safety valve".
3. Probability assessment
DeepSeek gives the following odds:
rapid de-escalation - 30%,
proxy war - 40%,
regional war - 20%,
change of regime - 10%.
AGI comment: The estimates are realistic, but the method for obtaining them is not disclosed. There is a lack of justification (for example, historical analogs, as in the GPT -4 o model ).