Aksayskiy Vladimir : другие произведения.

Passions Around Pandemic - Scientist's Impartial Look

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"Where was born - there is your throne"

The remote mode seems to be contributing to the discussion of the burning topic of the pandemic. The abundance of conflicting information is amazing, about which one of the Russians shrewdly remarked - "... And in general, its a complete lie."

For me, "... sheer lies" is an optimistic option - it suggests that someone knows the truth. It seems that this is not so - it is possible, we all, without exception, will have an interesting, stunning future. It is no coincidence that all the planetary media and leaders of all states almost unanimously declare, "... When the pandemic subsides, the world order will probably restart," said Fox News journalist Tucker Carlson.

At the end of his life, Vladimir Vernadsky cautiously remarked: "... our World is more like an organism than a mechanism, even a very complex one." It seems that if the evolutionary motive of the hierarchical organization of life on the planet persists, then increased self-isolation of the cells of planetary society is inevitable - with increased mobility of society as a whole. A vivid analogy is that the body of each of us consists of 10^14 cells, of which only cells of the protective and communication systems can move within the body - this is not more than a few percent. Well, of course, all the cells together, as part of the body, have the ability to move to the nearest target. By the way, 10^14 is only 13 thousand times more than today's human population.

In the history of terrestrial society, attempts to organize hierarchical structures with consciously introduced elements of self-isolation are known - it is enough to recall the caste system - it seems that the process continues, and with the unpredictability of a natural phenomenon.

Some Russians are interested in the scientific answer to the question: " What determines the spread of coronavirus?" - Of course, from the number of social mankind. As the numbers grow, the frequency of influenza epidemics and pandemics grows - there's no getting anywhere - we are the habitat for the virus. It is possible that a meaningful search for the statistical laws of a pandemic is possible only within the framework of the "parasite-host" models. Models can be implemented on the basis of neural networks, Markov chains, etc.

If we want to increase in number, then it seems that we will have to take more seriously the construction of the immune system of planetary society as a living discreteness. But this business is not quick, and there is time - we will survive this pandemic more or less safely, because the Russians survived the "perestroika", and it formally is the same pandemic - a jump in mortality in 1991-1994 from 10 to 15 per 1000 people.

In the hierarchical construction of Life, any living discreteness, if desired, can be seen simultaneously as a parasite and a host. For example, in the simplest one-dimensional construction, viruses are our parasites, we are plant parasites, plants are sun parasites, the sun is a parasite ...

In other words, in our World we do not see completely autonomous discreteness, and it seems that the principle of peaceful or not very coexistence is the most promising one, because you will never completely defeat everyone, and you dont really want to - otherwise it will be boring. And finally, the principle of coexistence is fully consistent with the principle of maximum geochemical activity.


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