Коганицкий Григорий. The Military Aspect of the Korean Gambit

-- The general topic is "The degradation of the US military-industrial complex"

-- Part one - "Detection and execution of target designation to intercept the next Wunderwaffe of US/Lockheed Martin - F-35 fighter"

-- Generals are always prepared to fight the last war.

Words from British Prime Minister Winston Churchill

-- The Military Aspect of the Korean Gambit

This article was written by me and posted on the site on 07/04/2013.

11 years have passed since then, but US politicians have clearly not become smarter; the economic situation in the US, including its "sacred cow", the military industry, has worsened even more; the US has practically lost its political leadership and prestige.

At the same time, North Korea and its ally China, have moved from copying Soviet weapons systems to introducing their own developments, which in many ways, such as in radio countermeasure systems, are ahead of the systems in service with the US.

So why am I wasting my time translating an old article!?

As I wrote above, NOTHING HAS CHANGED and none of the US politicians have become smarter.

Apparently, for the social climbers in power, the descendants of thieves; bootleggers; prostitutes and racketeers - this is, in principle, impossible.

They even choose their president as the lesser of three evils - from a senile > from a frostbitten bitch < and from criminal that is under investigation and multi-million lawsuits ....

And so, the translation of my old article - Koganitsky Grigory Aronovich. The military aspect of the Korean gambit (samlib.ru) (text was in Russian).

The Afghan adventure is not over yet, the dancing around Iran continues, on the streets of Syria, at the instigation of the USA and its minions, explosions are thundering and people are dying, and an overseas political terrorist, coyly has unleashed a new round of tension and a pre-war situation.

Why coyly!?

And how can we call actions in the course of which:

On the one hand, foreign bombers carrying nuclear weapons begin to fly over an independent country, at least without its consent, and statements appear in the press on the topic that these Korean commies need to be stand in attention again, and, in order not to be unfounded, they introduce a regime of maximum sanctions, effectively destroying the country they hate with the hands of others;

And, on the other hand, the culprit of creating a pre-war situation sighs heavily over the danger to the WORLD and even cancels the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.... true, on the other end of this WORLD... well, supposedly, so as not to create unnecessary tension....

Why!?

The situation and the actions of the "main character" remind me most of the activity of a criminal kingpin who has made a mess of himself, and in order not to be "degraded" for his grave sins, he begins to put pressure on all the defenseless little ones around him, so that those who are bigger don't open their mouths at him right away.

Everything would be fine for him: the chaos he is organizing is unfolding far from his plank bed (shkonca - criminal slang); his "minions" are sweetly and enthusiastically exclaiming "....what would you like, how and in what pose...!?"; and the lackeys are scratching their heads and horrifiedly wondering how all this will end for them, but they don't yelp and obediently march in formation... into a bright future with grenade launchers firing from back alleys and gas attacks in the subway.

There's just one problem, this criminal kingpin forgot that this same "weakling" once beat to his face, not bowing to his head to the monstrous lawlessness and not making allowances for his weakness and losses.

And how can one remember such a trifle, if everyone around, well, at least majority of this arrogant criminal's "minions", smiles sweetly and stands in the pose of "...what would you like to wont...".

And what is there to be afraid , if there is a friendly chorus of conclusions, "authoritative experts", confirming the correctness and safety of the chosen path.

What I really don't like about this story and the paternal pats on the shoulder by these "experts" to the international community!?

This is that all the "experts' conclusions" were written/voiced after they had a hearty lunch and picked in their teeth.

North Korea, in fact is cornered by an endless series of sanctions and restrictions.

Moreover, these people remember well what was done to them during the previous aggression of the West and do not expect mercy, and will not ask for it. They have a different mentality.

The West, in principle, is not able to understand that these people simply have nothing to lose, but by spinning up events on the Korean peninsula and drawing in as many interested states as possible, they can get their own, albeit ghostly, chance or at least "leave" with dignity, VERY loudly slamming the door.

Purely economic calculations play a significant role -

The economy of North Korea has already been living under the laws of war time for years and they can still hold out for quite a long time, and, to a large extent, in the event of a war, at the expense of the enemy's resources.

The economy of South Korea is not ready for this, especially in the conditions of significant internal confrontation and possible total guerrilla warfare on its territory.

That is, the collapse of the Korean peninsula and its surroundings may occur, albeit not immediately, but with great casualties and serious consequences.

Right now, the United States clearly cannot withstand another Korean war, and one that is also ambiguously perceived by the allies....

So, taking into account all of the above, the actions of North Korea are not so naive, spectacle-like and not calculated.

More precisely, this "spectacle" may prove to be too heavy for the entire world .

Too many forces and conflicting interests have begun to concentrate around the Korean peninsula.

The pro-Western press's incantations/dreams about Russia and China moving their troops to the region to support the US, "ravish" me the most.....!!???

Optimists!

-- Let's try to analyze the technical component of a possible conflict.

First, let us consider some speculative statements on this topic:

Well, who can be scared by these few low-power nuclear charges that this PYGMY probably has;

And even if he has, he has nothing to deliver them to the target with. And the accuracy of Korean missiles using analog (most likely pneumatic_analog) control systems is +/- 100 kilometers;

And even if he does have something, they simply won't reach to target.

They after launch will either be shot down by missile defense ships right in the Sea of Japan; or, on the stratospheric part of the flight, they will be shot down by missile defense systems of the Guantnamo military base; or they will be destroyed by missile defense missiles with a nuclear warheads protecting the mainland.

Let's start with the statement about "several low-yield primitive, "low-tech" nuclear charges"....

/all information below is taken from Wikipedia and publicly available reference books on civil defense/

According to South Korea, North Korea has produced about 40 kg of plutonium to date (meaning 11 years ago. My note.).

The minimum possible "low-tech" nuclear charge is consist of about 6 to 8 kg of plutonium, providing a unit power of 1.5 to 8 kilotons (depending on the technological level).

But then interesting technical questions arise.

Apparently, the latest tests were not only successful as the estimated explosion power was from 6 to 15 kilotons, but there was also no significant isotopic emission during this explosion.

The West, shyly shuffling its foot, immediately began to talk about the thoroughness of the sealing of the Korean mine and the depth of its occurrence, that is, about the absence of significant emission of explosion products to the surface.

Why is this so important!?

It is impossible to completely seal a mine even in theory as, during an explosion, there is always an emission of radioactive gases, which are in the explosion cavity under super-high pressure.

But, for a high-tech charge, such emission is an order of magnitude lower than for low-tech ones.

Moreover, the higher the technology, the lower the emission....

That is, it is quite possible to talk about the explosion of a high-tech charge.

Why is this so important!?

Three interconnected answers -

The charge uses a minimal amount of plutonium and the weight of the device (without a durable case) can be 100-150 kg.

That is - today North Korea may well have from 6 to 8 warheads with a capacity of at least 6 kilotons, suitable for installation on medium-class missiles (meaning - 11 years ago. My note).

Do you thing this is really so a little!?

6 kilotons, with extremely low accuracy....!?

It was not for nothing that I emphasized (without a strong hull).

There is another type of nuclear weapon that everyone knows about (google it - cobalt bomb) but prefers not to talk about, because it is a weapon of the DOOMED and COURSED INTO A CORNER.

Why is this so important!?

If a low-power plutonium charge loads into two-layer casing made of uranium 238 with 10-15% enrichment and in the cavity of which cobalt shot is poured on a caramel binder, it gives a completely different type of weapon of mass destruction, capable, when detonated in the atmosphere or near space, of turning for 5-8 years an area of several thousand square kilometers into an uninhabitable zone.

How it is difficult to make a uranium case containing 150-200 kg of cobalt shot!?

I'd better give one figure - (C_wiki) "the cost of purified cobalt (usually in granules) on the international market is about 26 dollars per kilogram"....

Let's consider, the statement in the context of the above, - "they have nothing to deliver them to the target with.... And.... they simply won't to reach..."

Why is this important!?

The fact is that this only matters for classic nuclear weapons.

And what about cobalt bombs!?

They don't need definitely to reach to the target.

The most ideal option is.

As for a "weapon of retaliation".

They must, in one way or another, be detonated at a high altitude or, even better, in the stratospheric section of the trajectory, ensuring the maximum zone of destruction.

Why is it better, "in the stratosphere"!?

This is a feature of the cobalt bomb.

Detonated in the stratosphere, it emits into the stratosphere irradiated, incandescent and absorbing radioactive carbon, fragments of cobalt shrapnel, which flying to the entrance of the dense layers of the atmosphere along a ballistic trajectory.

After entering the dense layers of the atmosphere, both carbon and cobalt burn out and form a highly radioactive oxide-carbide cloud.

And here is a very interesting point - the rose of dominant winds. I have not found such information for North America and Japan in the public domain, but there is one important historical precedent - the attack on the USA carried out by Japan in 1944 using balloons (make Google - .... "balloon bomb", also Fu-Go ....).

It turns out that at altitudes of 15,000-16,000 m, that is, in the zone of formation of the radioactive cloud, from the side of Guantnamo Island - the prevailing winds are directed towards the American continent, and from the side of the Sea of Japan, at altitudes of 4,000-6,000 m, they are directed towards Japan....

The wind speed towards the USA at an altitude of 15 kilometers reaches approximately 120 to 150 km / h.

The speed of precipitation of such an aerosol cloud is quite low.

That is the warhead's detonating at 800-1000 km short of the continent does not play a significant role.

The main thing is that it explodes or is detonated by air defense systems at the required altitude.

Detonation when a missile is damaged by kinetic elements is easy to incorporate into the design of the warhead (as I indicated above, the charge body is made of low-enriched uranium. That means it has a high strength) and detonation of an anti-missile with a nuclear warhead on the missile's path serves, in itself, as an excellent detonator for a plutonium charge...

Let's consider a probable scenario of the conflict.

What surprises me in the publications that have appeared in the press it beliefs that the Korean side will act strictly within the capabilities of the US and its allies' missile defense....

What, in my opinion, will be most likely to happen?

Apparently, the main launch points will be spaced out and launches is carried out quite simultaneously.

Two or three long-range silo missiles will be launched from the central part of the country; from 6 to 12 medium-range missiles will be launched from the coastal areas, and all this will be supported by several dozen "light" missiles of short and intermediate-range heading approximately in the direction of US missile defense systems, acting as target simulators.

As I have already indicated above, this missile group will include at least 6 devices with a nuclear warhead (meaning 11 years ago. My note.).

Considering the large number of targets and the operation of radio countermeasures (they demonstrated their sufficient effectiveness during the launch of the North Korean satellite. More precisely, we can say that North Korea missile defense system will emit everything that operates at a close frequency towards the frigates....) I do not think that the naval missile defense group will be able to intercept more than one warhead with a strike from kinetic interceptors.

And this interception will be the most terrible option for Japan.

(C - from Wikipedia) "... The activity of 1 gram of cobalt-60 is estimated at 41.8 TBq (1130 Ci).... " "... a zone with a concentration of 1 gram per square kilometer is considered severely affected...."

A cloud containing 200 kg-250 kg of highly radioactive aerosol carried by winds to the territory of Japan will create, in the wind rose, a completely uninhabitable zone on an area of 200-300 square kilometers and a dangerous zone for habitation on an area of 1000-1500 square kilometers.
At the same time, the fishing zone of the Sea of Japan will be completely destroyed.

The accident at Fukushima power plan will be perceived in light of this as a minor nuisance.

Let's assume that the majority of the remaining warheads, not protected by countermeasure systems and decoys, will be intercepted (kinetic interception) or the "logic" of the warheads carry out its detonation in the area of the Guantanamo base.

In this case, a radioactive cloud weighing 1000-1200 kg will fall on the Pacific coast of the USA and the adjacent States with a fairly large dispersion over an area of 20,000-30,000 square kilometers in the form of unstable localized radioactive spots, making this entire, most populated and productive area of the USA, a zone "not recommended for habitation".

The remaining one or two warheads will be intercepted directly over the coast (by atmospheric nuclear detonation) and form a dense cloud moving towards the center of the country....

Well, and then, as the "wind rose" indicates and as will luck for every one.

If we judge by the reaction of the US population and its economy to Hurricane Katrina, then we can talk about the exodus of the majority of the population from the affected areas, the formation of criminal, uncontrolled enclaves in the exclusion zone and, as a result, given the area of the surface stricken by radioactive spots, we can talk about the complete collapse of the US economy.

So, US citizens need to think carefully whether the hatred of their politicians towards North Korea is worth the fate to which they can be doomed...

P.S.

I really hope that the military and politicians of both South Korea and Japan will read this article and they will think carefully about whether they should so actively promote the selfish interests of the US in order as a result of that, to get on their territories a global "Fukushima".

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Аннотация: 11 years have passed since then, but US politicians have clearly not become smarter; the economic situation in the US, including its "sacred cow", the military industry, has worsened even more; the US has practically lost its political leadership and prestige. At the same time, North Korea and its ally China, have moved from copying Soviet weapons systems to introducing their own developments, which in many ways, such as in radio countermeasure systems, are ahead of the systems in service with the US.

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The Military Aspect of the Korean Gambit