Аннотация: Do the Germans want a new war? This is an author's political review
Abstract
Germany, historically torn between the pursuit of peace and fatal expansionist ventures, once again stands before a strategic crossroads. After 16 years of stability under Angela Merkel and the chaotic crises during Olaf Scholz"s tenure, Friedrich Merz has come to power-a politician whose statements about "preparing Europe for war with Russia" evoke the darkest pages of German history.
But do Germans themselves want war? A people known for their industriousness and rational approach? Facts suggest otherwise: a record 82% of the population supports diplomatic resolution of the conflict in Ukraine (ARD poll, 2025). Yet the ruling elites-entwined with the military-industrial complex and Atlantic solidarity-are leading the country toward escalation. Why?
Economic crisis as a catalyst for aggression
Recession (GDP fell by 0.4% in 2024), deindustrialization, and energy dependency create a breeding ground for the search for an "external enemy" a classic method to distract from internal failures.
The American factor
75% of military supplies to Ukraine pass through German ports "business on blood" yielding €12 billion in profit for Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence (data for 2024).
Historical revanchism
The idea of Drang nach Osten ("Push to the East") never fully disappeared. Calls for a "European army" and the militarization of the budget (€100 billion for the Bundeswehr) are alarming signals.
History shows its true face: every time Germany chose war with Russia, it ended in disaster. From the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918 to Stalingrad the cost of illusions proved too high. The question now is whether the lesson has been learned...
Keywords: Germany, War, Merz, Russia, Economy, Crisis, History.
1. Angela Merkel - Chancellor of Stability
Angela Dorothea Merkel (born July 17, 1954), originally from Hamburg, became the first woman to hold the office of Federal Chancellor of Germany, a position she maintained for a record 16 years from 2005 to 2021. Representing the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), she is regarded as one of the most influential political figures in both German and European history.
1.1 Political Style and Governance Merkel`s
Merkel developed a unique governance style often described by political scientists as pragmatic, cautious, and consensus-oriented. She avoided sudden moves, favoring incremental, gradual reforms. This approach ensured political stability and allowed her to maintain a high level of public trust over the years.
Unlike charismatic leaders, Merkel positioned herself as a "physicist chancellor" rational, balanced, analytical rather than rhetorical. Her restraint became a hallmark during turbulent times.
1.2 Key Achievements Merkel`s
One of the main achievements of Merkel"s era was economic stability. Under her leadership, Germany remained the leading economy in Europe, with record-low unemployment and robust exports. During the 2008 global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis, her anti-crisis policies played a key role in preserving Europe"s economic framework.
A significant moment was her 2015 decision to open Germany"s borders to over a million refugees from Syria and other countries. Viewed by some as a humanitarian gesture and moral leadership, it also sparked fierce domestic debates and fueled the rise of right-wing parties.
On the international stage, Merkel consistently strengthened Germany"s role as a global actor, acting as a mediator between the U.S., Russia, and China. Under her leadership, the ambitious Energiewende a shift away from nuclear energy toward renewable sources was initiated.
1.3 Criticism and Weaknesses Merkel`s
Despite her impressive record, Merkel"s governance faced challenges. The 2015 migration crisis polarized German society and contributed to the rise of xenophobic sentiment and the popularity of Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Her support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline increased Germany"s energy dependence on Russia, later drawing sharp criticism amid geopolitical tensions.
Her tenure was also marked by underwhelming progress in digitalization, infrastructure stagnation, and a sluggish response to the COVID-19 pandemic including delayed lockdowns and vaccination issues. The Bundeswehr remained underfunded and plagued by bureaucracy.
1.4 Merkel"s Legacy Merkel`s
Merkel left office in 2021 with a strong international reputation but amid domestic challenges: rising populism, unresolved structural issues, and growing energy dependency. Nonetheless, her era will be remembered as a time of stability and restrained leadership.
2. Olaf Scholz - Chancellor of Continuity in a Time of Change
Olaf Scholz (born June 14, 1958) assumed office as Federal Chancellor in December 2021, succeeding Angela Merkel amid growing international and domestic instability. A member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), he had prior experience as Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor and positioned himself as a guarantor of continuity and cautious modernization.
2.1 Crisis Leadership
From the outset of his term, Scholz faced major challenges chief among them Russia"s military aggression against Ukraine, which began in February 2022. In response, he announced a fundamental shift in Germany"s foreign and defense policy. In his February 27, 2022 speech, he introduced the term Zeitenwende ("turning point"), marking a strategic reorientation.
Germany provided substantial military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and established a special €100 billion fund for Bundeswehr modernization. However, the pace of military reform remains slow and transparency limited.
2.2 Socio-Economic Policy Scholz`s
Domestically, Scholz implemented a minimum wage increase to €12/hour, strengthening protections for low-wage workers one of the flagship achievements of his cabinet. Amid the energy crisis and inflationary pressures, the government introduced relief measures for households and small businesses, such as energy subsidies and subsidized public transport.
In energy policy, the emphasis shifted to accelerating the transition to renewables particularly solar and wind power to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports. Nonetheless, Germany temporarily returned to coal generation, prompting criticism from environmental groups.
2.3 Institutional Challenges Scholz`s
Scholz"s tenure is marked by political turbulence. The ruling coalition a triad of SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) - operates under constant compromise, often slowing decision-making, especially in defense, budgeting, and immigration.
Government scandals and reshuffles, including criticism of Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, have damaged perceptions of administrative stability. Falling approval ratings reflect growing public and business discontent, especially amid high taxes and persistent bureaucracy.
2.4 Contradictions and Uncertainty Scholz`s
Despite progressive declarations, Scholz"s government struggles to implement reforms -particularly in digitalization, education, and infrastructure. In migration and demographic policy, institutional fragmentation persists.
Scholz exhibits a restrained, bureaucratically calibrated leadership style, where caution outweighs strategic daring. His governance could be described as "technocratic management under uncertainty," bounded by institutional frameworks and coalition politics.
3. Friedrich Merz - A New Chancellor, A New German Policy: Return to "Drang nach Osten"?
Friedrich Merz (born November 11, 1955) became Federal Chancellor of Germany on May 6, 2025, succeeding Olaf Scholz. While his tenure is just beginning, his initial statements are striking: "Europe is preparing for war with Russia." This raises alarms, given Germany"s historically central role in its complex relations with Russia from alliances to devastating wars.
3.1 Historical Context: Bismarck vs. Hitler
Otto von Bismarck (1815-1898), the "Iron Chancellor," believed that "Russia is the last country Germany should fight." He pursued alliances with the Russian Empire, understanding that conflict would lead to catastrophe. In the 20th century, Germany twice ignored this principle:
World War I (1914-1918): Imperial Germany fought against Russia, leading to revolutions and collapse on both sides.
Adolf Hitler (1889-1945): In Mein Kampf, he claimed war with Russia was inevitable if Germany sought eastern expansion (Lebensraum). This led to the 1941 invasion and the deaths of millions.
Even Mustafa Kemal Atatürk (1881-1938), founder of modern Turkey, warned: "Expansion in Europe always leads to war with Russia."
3.2 Modern Germany: A New "Drang nach Osten"?
Drang nach Osten ("Push to the East") was a historical term denoting German expansion into Slavic lands. Today, Merz, a lawyer and representative of the CDU, makes statements that can be interpreted in two ways:
- If Germany wants greater influence in Europe, it seeks allies against Russia namely the -U.S. and U.K. - echoing NATO logic.
- If Germany wants to project power globally (Africa, the Middle East, Asia), then Russia could be a natural partner, as it was under Bismarck.
Yet Berlin now clearly chooses the first path: support for Ukraine, EU militarization, and severed economic ties with Moscow. This mirrors past German errors confrontation with Russia instead of pragmatic partnership.
3.3 Economic Crisis: German Recession
While Merz speaks of war, Germany faces recession:
-GDP fell by 0.3% in 2023 and 0.1% in 2024 - technical recession.
- Industrial output is shrinking due to high energy prices and the loss of Russian gas.
- Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank forecast stagnation until 2026.
In such conditions, war rhetoric is risky Germany risks external entanglement instead of solving internal problems.
3.4 Conclusion
Merz has yet to prove himself a reformer, but his rhetoric recalls past German mistakes. Bismarck was right: Germany should befriend Russia, not confront it. If Germany continues down a path of escalation, it may face not just economic crisis but military crisis as well.
4. Conclusions
1. Angela Merkel: A symbol of stability and pragmatism. Her 16-year rule (2005-2021) brought economic strength but left unresolved issues: dependence on Russia, the migration crisis, and digital stagnation.
2. Olaf Scholz: A chancellor of crisis management. He confronted war in Ukraine and energy collapse. He initiated the Zeitenwende ("turning point") but faces a slow-moving coalition and bureaucratic inertia.
3. Friedrich Merz: A path of confrontation? The new chancellor (since 2025) speaks of preparing Europe for war with Russia risking the repetition of Germany"s historical errors, against Bismarck"s advice.
4. Historical pattern: Drang nach Osten vs. strategic alliance with Russia. Bismarck warned of war"s disastrous cost. Hitler and Atatürk saw it as inevitable. Merz appears to follow the latter.
5. Economic strain: Germany"s recession (GDP decline in 2023-2024), deindustrialization, and energy crisis demand urgent reforms not militaristic posturing.
6. Societal and political divide: From Merkel to Merz growing populism (AfD), migration disputes, and coalition fragmentation weaken Germany"s unity.
7. Germany"s future lies between stability and risk. Will Merz continue the transatlantic course at the price of conflict with Russia or return to Bismarckian pragmatism to address domestic crises? Time will tell.