This is the tenth of the Institute's annual estimates of the nature and size of the military forces of the principal powers. It covers the Communist powers, those countries which have mutual defence treaties with the United States (excluding Latin America), and a number of non-aligned countries. Countries appearing for the first time in this edition include Algeria, Austria, Burma, Finland, and Morocco. South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, and Yugoslavia, omitted last year, are included again.
The Institute assumes full responsibility for the facts and judgments which the document contains. The co-operation of governments has been sought and in many cases received. Not all countries have been equally co-operative in producing information, and some figures have been estimated. The Institute owes a considerable debt to a number of its own members and consultants who have assisted in compiling and checking material.
Manpower figures given are those of regular forces, although an indication of the size of para-military forces, militia, or reserve forces has been given in the sections dealing with individual countries. Naval strengths are those of active fleets and ships in commission only, except where otherwise stated. Vessels of less than 100 tons standard displacement have been excluded. Figures for defence budgets are the latest available and are exclusive of military aid.
National currency figures have been converted into dollars at the prevailing rates, as reported to the International Monetary Fund. In the case of some East European countries and Asian countries which are not members of the IMF, defence expenditure totals have been converted at the rates drawn up by Professor Benoit and Dr Lubell (see footnote to Table 4 on page 56). The conversion rates listed in each country section are those used in this document as specified above, and may not always be aplicable to commercial transactions.
A table showing the average strength of military units, and a glossary listing the abbreviations used in The Military Balance,will be found overleaf. The term 'combat aircraft', as used in the text, comprises bombers, fighter-bombers, interceptors, reconnaissance, light-strike, counter-insurgency, and armed trainer aircraft, but not other categories of military aircraft.
This document examines the military and diplomatic situation as it existed in July 1968. No projections of force levels or weapons beyond 1968 have been included, except where explicitly stated. The material in this document should not be regarded as a comprehensive guide to the nature of the balance of strategic power: it does not reflect the facts of geography, vulnerability, efficiency, etc., on either side. It may, however, be found useful in the context of discussions on strategy and disarmament. The Military Balance is now complemented by another annual publication,
Strategic Survey, published each spring, which reviews developments in strategic policy, doctrine, and weapons for the preceding calendar year in the major countries and most significant areas of world tension.
September 1968
Вступление
Это десятый выпуск ежегодных оценок Института характера и численности Вооруженных сил основных держав. Он охватывает коммунистические державы, те страны, которые имеют договоры о взаимной обороне с Соединенными Штатами (за исключением Латинской Америки), и ряд неприсоединившихся стран. Впервые в этом издании представлены Алжир, Австрия, Бирма, Финляндия и Марокко. Южная Африка, Швеция, Швейцария и Югославия, опущенные в прошлом году, снова включены.
Институт несет полную ответственность за факты и суждения, содержащиеся в документе. Правительства стремились к сотрудничеству и во многих случаях получали его. Не все страны сотрудничали в передаче информации, и поэтому некоторые данные оценочные. Институт в значительной степени благодарит своих членов и консультантов, которые оказывали помощь в сборе и проверке материалов.
Приводятся данные о численности личного состава регулярных сил, хотя в разделах, посвященных отдельным странам, приводится информация о численности воинских контингентов, ополченцев или резервных сил. Для военно-морских силы приводится численность активных флотов и кораблей в строю, если не указано иное. Исключены суда водоизмещением менее 100 тонн стандартного водоизмещения. Данные по оборонным бюджетам являются самыми последними и не включают военную помощь.
Как сообщалось Международному Валютному Фонду, показатели в национальной валюте были пересчитаны в доллары по преобладающим курсам. В случае некоторых восточноевропейских и азиатских стран, не являющихся членами МВФ, итоговые данные по оборонным расходам были пересчитаны по ставкам, установленным профессором Бенуа и д-ром Любелем (см. сноску к таблице 4 на стр. 56). Коэффициенты пересчета, указанные в каждом разделе страны, используются в настоящем документе, как указано выше, и не всегда применимы к коммерческим операциям.
На оборотной стороне размещена таблица, отражающая среднюю численность воинских частей, и глоссарий с перечислением сокращений, используемых в военном балансе. Термин "боевые самолеты", используемый в тексте, включает бомбардировщики, истребители-бомбардировщики, перехватчики, разведчики, легкие штурмовики, контрповстанческие и вооруженные учебно-тренировочные самолеты, но не другие категории военных самолетов.
В настоящем документе рассматривается военно-дипломатическая ситуация в июле 1968 года. Никаких прогнозов уровней силы или оружия за пределами 1968 не включены, за исключением тех, где явно не указано. Материал данного документа не следует рассматривать как исчерпывающее руководство по характеру баланс стратегических сил: они не отражают факторов географии, уязвимости, эффективности и т.д., с обеих сторон. Вместе с тем он может оказаться полезным в контексте обсуждения стратегии и разоружения. Военный баланс теперь дополняется еще одним ежегодным изданием, Стратегический обзор, публикуемый каждую весну, в котором рассматриваются события в области стратегической политики, доктрины и вооружений за предыдущий календарный год в основных странах и наиболее важных областях мировой напряженности.
Сентября 1968 года
ABBREVIATIONS ABM - Anti-ballistic missile / Противобаллистическая ракета
ANZUS -Australia, New Zealand, and the United States Defence Pact / АНЗЮС.
ASW - Anti-submarine warfare / Противолодочная оборона.
BMD - Ballistic missile defence / Противоракетная оборона.
DOSAAF - Part-time military training organization (USSR) / ДОССАФ.
FOBS - Fractional orbital bombardment system / Орбитальная бомбардировочная система.
GNP - Gross national product / Валовый национальный продукт.
GSFG - Group of Soviet Forces in Germany / Группа Советских войск в Германии.
ICBM - Inter-continental ballistic missile / Межконтинентальная баллистическая ракета.
IRBM - Intermediate-range ballistic missile / Баллистическая ракета промежуточной дальности.
LPH - Helicopter Landing Platform / Десантный вертолетоносец.
MIRV - Multiple individually-targeted re-entry vehicle / Разделяющаяся ГЧ индивидуального наведения..
MRBM - Medium-range ballistic missile / Баллистическая ракета средней дальности.
MTB - Motor torpedo boat / Торпедный катер.
NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization / НАТО.
NORAD - North American Air Defence / ПВО Северо-Американского континента.
PLA - People's Liberation Army (China) / НОАК - Народно-освободительная армия Китая.
PVO - Air Defence Command (USSR) - ПВО страны.
RCT - Regimental combat team / Полковая боевая группа.
SAM - Surface-to-air missile / ЗУР - Зенитная управляемая ракета.
SAS - Special Air Service / Авиация специального назначения.
SEATO - South-East Asia Treaty Organization / СЕАТО.
SHAPE - Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers in Europe / Верховный штаб союзных сил в Европе.
SP - Self-propelled / Самоходный.
UNFICYP - United Nations Force in Cyprus / Войска ООН на Кипре.
$ - American dollars / Американский доллар.
Million -000,000.
Billion-000,000,000.
NOTES. The above figures refer to the basic war establishments of the formation in question. They should be treated as very approximate, since most military organization is flexible and units may be reinforced or run down for particular operations. Divisional strengths refer to combat units only and do not include support units or rear services outside the divisional structure. A dash indicates that the formation in question is not normally operated by that country.
Warsaw Pact forces not included above have similar unit strengths to those of the Soviet Union. NATO forces not included in the table have similar totals to those of Germany. Iran, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have tended to follow American military organization, while Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Singapore generally follow British practice.
a Army divisions only; a Marine Corps division has over 20,000men.
b Strength of a regiment, which is the equivalent formation in the Soviet and the Chinese command structures.
ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ. Приведенные выше цифры относятся к основным военным учреждениям рассматриваемых формирований. Их следует рассматривать как весьма приблизительные, поскольку большинство военных организаций являются гибкими и подразделения могут быть усилены или ослаблены для проведения конкретных операций. Силы дивизий относятся только к боевым единицам и не включают подразделения поддержки или тыловые службы вне дивизионной структуры. Тире указывает на то, что данная формация обычно не управляется этой страной.
Силы Варшавского договора, не включенные в таблицу, аналогичны силы войскам Советского Союза.. Силы НАТО, не включенные в таблицу, имеют общие показатели, аналогичные показателям Германии. Иран, Пакистан, Филиппины, Таиланд, Япония, Южная Корея и Тайвань, как правило, следуют американской военной организации, в то время как Австралия, Малайзия, Новая Зеландия и Сингапур в целом следуют британской практике.
a. Армейская дивизия; дивизия морской пехоты насчитывает более 20 000 человек.
b. Силы полка, эквивалентная формация в советских и китайских структурах.
The Warsaw Pact is a multilateral military alliance formed by a 'Treaty of Friendship, Mutual Assistance, and Co-operation', which was signed in Warsaw on 14 May 1955 by the Governments of the Soviet Union, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania. Albania, although still nominally a member of the Pact, has no diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union and has not taken part in Pact activities in recent years. Mongolia, China, North Korea, and North Vietnam have all sent observers to past meetings of the Pact, but are not members of it.
In addition to the Warsaw Treaty, the Soviet Union had concluded bilateral mutual aid treaties with Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania before 1950, and signed a similar treaty with East Germany in 1964. AH signatories to the Warsaw Treaty, with the exception of Albania, also have bilateral treaties with each other and these have been recently renewed. The Soviet Union concluded status-of-forces agreements with Poland, East Germany, Rumania, and Hungary between December 1956 and May 1957; all these remain in effect except the one with Rumania which lapsed in June 1958 when Soviet troops left Rumania.
The Warsaw Treaty Organization consists of two main bodies, the Political Consultative Committee and the High Command of United Armed Forces, both of which have their offices in Moscow. The Political Consultative Committee consists of the First Secretaries of the Communist Party, Heads of Government, and the Foreign and Defence Ministers of the member-countries. It was intended to meet twice a year, but in fact only nine meetings had been held up to July 1968. The Committee has established a Joint Secretariat, consisting of a specially appointed official from each country, and a Permanent Commission, whose task is to make recommendations on general questions of foreign policy for members of the Pact. Both these bodies are located in Moscow, with a majority of Russian officials. The Soviet Head of the Joint Secretariat is, for example, also Chief of Staff of the High Command.
The High Command has supreme authority over such military forces as are assigned to it by the member-states. According to the treaty, the Command is directed 'to strengthen the defensive capability of the Warsaw Pact, to prepare military plans in case of war and to decide on the deployment of troops'. The Command consists of a Commander-in-Chief, who has the eight Defence Ministers or national Commanders-inChief as his deputies, and a Staff which includes permanent representatives of the general staffs of the member-countries. The posts of Commander-in-Chief and Chief of Staff of the High Command have always been held by Soviet officers.
The bulk of the ground forces of the Warsaw Pact is provided by the Soviet Union. These consist of the Northern Group of Forces, with headquarters at Legnica in Poland; the Southern Group of Forces, with headquarters at Tokol, near Budapest; and the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany (GSFG), with headquarters at Wiinsdorf, near East Berlin.*
* And since August 1968, an undetermined number of troops in Czechoslovakia.
The six operational divisions of the East German Army appear to be under the operational command of GSFG. These forces total 32 divisions, of which 15 are tank divisions. Most East European countries have displayed short-range surface-to-surface missile launchers, but there is no evidence that nuclear warheads for these missiles have been supplied.
Soviet tactical air forces include at least one air army (about 900 tactical aircraft), stationed in East Germany. The air forces of the other active Pact members, which consist partly of fighter-interceptors and partly of ground-support aircraft but do not include any medium- or long-range bombers, would be under the High Command in the event of war. There is an air defence and warning system centralized in Moscow and commanded by the C-in-C of the Soviet Air Defence Forces. Soviet MRBMs and other strategic weapons are based in the Soviet Union and remain under Soviet control.
Варшавский договор - это многосторонний военный союз, образованный на основе "Договора о дружбе, взаимной помощи и кооперации", который был подписан в Варшаве 14 мая 1955 года правительствами Советского Союза, Албании, Болгарии, Чехословакии, ГДР, Венгрии, Польши и Румынии. Албания, хотя и является номинальным членом пакта, не имеет дипломатических отношений с Советским Союзом и в последние годы не принимала участия в его деятельности. Монголия, Китай, Северная Корея и Северный Вьетнам направили наблюдателей на прошлые заседания пакта, но не являются его членами.
В дополнение к Варшавскому договору Советский Союз заключил двусторонние договоры о взаимной помощи с Болгарией, Чехословакией, Венгрией, Польшей и Румынией до 1950 года и подписал аналогичный договор с Восточной Германией в 1964 году. Страны, подписавшие Варшавский договор, за исключением Албании, также имеют двусторонние договоры друг с другом, и они были недавно возобновлены. Советский Союз заключил соглашения о статусе сил с Польшей, ГДР, Румынией и Венгрией в период с декабря 1956 года по май 1957 года; все они остаются в силе, за исключением Румынии, которая закончилась в июне 1958 года, когда советские войска покинули Румынию.
Организация Варшавского Договора состоит из двух основных органов - политического консультативного комитета и высшего командования Объединенных Вооруженных Сил, оба из которых имеют свои представительства в Москве. В состав политического консультативного комитета входят первые секретари Коммунистической партии, главы правительств, а также министры иностранных дел и обороны стран-членов. Предполагалось, что он будет собираться два раза в год, однако фактически до июля 1968 года было проведено лишь девять заседаний. Комитет учредил совместный Секретариат, состоящий из специально назначенного должностного лица от каждой страны, и постоянную комиссию, задача которой состоит в вынесении рекомендаций по общим вопросам внешней политики для членов пакта. Оба эти органа находятся в Москве, где большинство российских чиновников. Советский руководитель Объединенного Секретариата, например, также является начальником штаба высшего командования.
Верховное Командование обладает верховной властью над такими вооруженными силами, которые ему поручены государствами-членами. Согласно договору, командование направлено "на укрепление обороноспособности Варшавского договора, подготовку военных планов на случай войны и принятие решения о размещении войск". Командование состоит из главнокомандующего, заместителями которого являются восемь министров обороны или национальных командиров, а также штаба, в состав которого входят постоянные представители генеральных штабов государств-членов. Должности главнокомандующего и начальника штаба Верховного Главнокомандования всегда занимали советские офицеры.
Основную часть сухопутных войск Варшавского договора обеспечивает Советский Союз. Они состоят из Северной группы войск, со штаб-квартирой в городе Легница в Польше, Южной группой войск со штаб-квартирой в Токоле, недалеко от Будапешта, и группа советских войск в Германии (ГСВГ), со штаб-квартирой в Вюнсдорфе, возле Восточного Берлина.*
(*А с августа 1968 года - неопределенная численность войск в Чехословакии.)
Шесть дивизий восточногерманской армии под оперативным командованием ГСВГ. Эти силы насчитывают 32 дивизии, из которых 15 - танковые. В большинстве восточноевропейских стран имеются пусковые установки ракет малой дальности "земля-земля", но нет никаких доказательств того, что ядерные боеголовки для этих ракет были поставлены.
Советские тактические ВВС включают в себя как минимум одну воздушную армию (около 900 тактических самолетов), дислоцированную в ГДР. Военно-воздушные силы других активных членов пакта, которые состоят частично из истребителей-перехватчиков и частично из самолетов наземной поддержки, но не включают бомбардировщиков средней или большой дальности, будут находиться под высшим командованием в случае войны. В Москве централизована система противовоздушной обороны и предупреждения, которой командует командующий советских войск ПВО. Советский БРСД и другие стратегические вооружения в СССР и остаются под советским контролем.
ALBANIA
Population: 2,000,000.
Military service: Army, 2 years; Air Force, Navy and special units, 3 years.
Estimated GNP 1967: $2.0 billion.
Total regular forces: 38,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 304 million leks ($76,000,000). 4 leks = $1. Army Total strength: 30,000.
1 tank brigade.
5 infantry brigades.
About 100 tanks, mostly T-34s.
A few SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air missile launchers. Navy Total strength: 3,000.
3 submarines.
8 minesweepers.
20 other vessels. Air Force Total strength: 5,000; 60 combat aircraft.
6 air defence squadrons with MiG-15s, MiG-17s, and MiG-19s.
About 20 transports, including An-2 and Il-14, and Mi-4 helicopters. Para-military forces 12,500.
BULGARIA
Population: 8,500,000.
Military service: Army, 2 years; Navy and Air Force, 3 years.
Estimated GNP 1967: $7.5 billion.
Total regular forces: 153,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 264 million leva ($228,000,000). 1.16 leva = $ 1. Army Total strength: 125,000.
4 tank divisions.
8 motorized rifle divisions.
Over 2,000 tanks, mainly T-54s, with some T-34s and T-55s.
SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air missiles. Navy Total strength: 6,000.
2 submarines.
2 destroyer escorts.
8 coastal escorts.
6 inshore minesweepers.
35 other vessels.
A small Danube flotilla. Air Force Total strength: 22,000; 250 combat aircraft.
6 interceptor squadrons with MiG-17s and MiG-21s.
6 interceptor squadrons with MiG-19s.
3 reconnaissance squadrons with MiG-17Cs.
6 ground-support squadrons with MiG-17s.
20 transport aircraft, including Il-12 and Il-14, and some 40 Mi-4 Hound helicopters.
Para-military forces 20,000, including border troops. A People's Militia of 150,000.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Population: 14,600,000.
Military service: Army, 2 years; Air Force, 3 years.
Estimated GNP 1967: $25.5 billion.
Total regular forces: 225,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 13,000 million crowns ($1,538,000,000). 8.5 crowns = $1. Army Total strength: 175,000.
5 tank divisions.
9 motorized rifle divisions.
1 airborne brigade.
There are 2,700 tanks, mostly T-55s.
The Army is now at about 70 per cent of full strength.
SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air missiles. Air Force Total strength: 50,000; 600 combat aircraft.
300 MiG-17, MiG-19, and MiG-21 interceptors.
300 MiG-15, MiG-17, and Su-7 Fitter groundsupport aircraft.
50 Il-14 and Il-18 transport aircraft, and about 100 helicopters.
Over 300 training aircraft, including 150 L-29s. Para-military forces 40,000, including border troops.
EAST GERMANY
Population: 17,200,000.
Military service: Army, 18 months; Navy and Air Force, 2 years.
Estimated GNP 1967: $28.5 billion.
Total regular forces: 126,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 5,800 million Ostmarks ($1,715,000,000). 3.39 Ostmarks = $1. Army Total strength: 85,000.
2 tank divisions.
4 motorized rifle divisions.
About 1,800 tanks, mostly T-54s and T-55s, with some T-34s.
Some 850 artillery pieces, including 122mm and 152mm, and about 450 anti-aircraft guns.
SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air missiles. Navy Total strength: 16,000.
4 destroyer escorts.
25 coastal escorts.
45 coastal minesweepers.
12 Osa-class missile patrol boats.
50 motor torpedo boats (less than 100 tons).
30 other small craft (less than 100 tons).
18 landing craft.
A small number of Hound helicopters. Air Force Total strength: 25,000; 270 combat aircraft.
18 fighter-interceptor squadrons with MiG-17s, MiG-19s, and MiG-21s.
(There are 16 aircraft in an East German combat squadron.)
20 transport aircraft, including An-2 and Il-14.
40 Hare and Hound helicopters.
An anti-aircraft division of 9,000 is included in this Command. Para-military forces 20,000 security and 70,000 border troops, including a Border Command separate from the regular army.
The Betriebskampfgruppen, an armed workers' organization, numbers over 250,000.
HUNGARY
Population: 10,400,000.
Military service: 3 years maximum.
Estimated GNP 1967: $12.1 billion.
Total regular forces: 102,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 6,439 million forints ($370,000,000). 17.4 forints = $1. Army Total strength: 95,000.
1 tank division.
5 motorized rifle divisions.
About 700 tanks, mainly T-55s, with some T-54s.
SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air-missiles. Navy There is a Danube flotilla of 15 patrol vessels and a training ship. Air Force Total strength: 7,000; 140 combat aircraft.
9 fighter-interceptor squadrons with MiG-17s,
MiG-19s, and MiG-21s.
10 An-2 and Li-2 transport aircraft.
About 10 Hare and Hound helicopters. Para-military forces 35,000 security troops and border guards, plus a workers' militia of over 100,000.
POLAND
Population: 32,250,000.
Military service: Army, 2 years; Air Force, Navy, and special services, 3 years; Internal security forces, 27 months.
Estimated GNP 1967: $34 billion.
Total regular forces: 274,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 29,111 million zloty ($1,830,000,000). 15.9 zloty = $1. Army Total strength: 185,000.
5 tank divisions.
8 motorized rifle divisions.
1 airborne division.
1 amphibious assault division.
These divisions are normally at 70 per cent of full strength.
2,800 tanks, mostly T-54s and T-55s.
SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air missiles. Navy Total strength: 19,000, including marines.
5 submarines.
3 destroyers.
25 coastal escorts.
24 coastal minesweepers.
30 inshore minesweepers.
12 Osa-class missile patrol boats.
15 landing craft.
20 smaller vessels.
50 naval aircraft, mostly MiG-17s, with some
U-28 light bombers and helicopters.
Samlet cruise missiles for coastal defence. Air Force Total strength: 70,000; 750 combat aircraft.
6 light bomber squadrons with Il-28s.
45 interceptor squadrons with PZL-15s, MiG-19s, and MiG-21s.
14 ground-support and reconnaissance squadrons with MiG-17s and Su-7s.
About 40 transport aircraft, including An-2s, Il-12s, and Il-14s, and 40 helicopters, including Hares and Hounds.
About 300 training aircraft. Para-military forces 45,000 security and border troops, including the armoured brigades of the Frontier Defence Force.
ROUMANIA
Population: 19,700,000.
Military service: Army, 1 year; Navy and Air Force, 2 years.
Estimated GNP 1967: $16.9 billion.
Total regular forces: 173,000.
Defence appropriations 1968: 5,187 million lei ($551,000,000). 9.4 lei = $1. Army Total strength: 150,000.
2 tank divisions.
7 motorized rifle divisions.
Some independent mountain units.
1,200 T-34, T-54, and T-55 tanks.
SA-2 Guideline surface-to-air missiles. Navy Total strength: 8,000.
3 coastal escorts.
30 minesweepers.
5 Osa-class missile patrol boats.
25 smaller vessels. Air Force Total strength: 15,000; 240 combat aircraft.
18 interceptor squadrons with MiG-15s, MiG-17s, MiG-19s, and MiG-21s.
About 10 medium transports including I1-12, Il-14, and Li-2.
10 Mi-4 Hound helicopters.
About 150 training aircraft, including Yak-18 and L-29. Para-military forces 50,000, including border troops.
THE SOVIET UNION
Population: 235,000,000
Military service: Army and Air Force, 2 years; Navy and Border Guards, 3 years.
Estimated GNP 1967: $358 billion.
Defence appropriations 1968: 16,700 million roubles ($39,780,000,000). 0.42 roubles = $1.
The rouble figure represents the declared budget of the Ministry of Defence and does not include certain expenditures such as the cost of nuclear warheads, research-anddevelopment expenditure on advanced weapons systems, and the military elements of the space programme, which are believed to be included in the budgets of other ministries.
At the commercial exchange rate ($1 = 0.9 roubles) the dollar equivalent of the declared defence budget is approximately $18.5 billion.
If calculated at a rate which in the opinion of scholars more accurately reflects the different pricing system used in Soviet industry ($1 = 0.42 roubles) declared Soviet military expenditure is at the level of $39-40 billion a year, and total military expenditure could be of the order of about $50 billion.
Total regular forces are estimated at 3,220,000 men. In addition, the para-military forces, including the security and border troops of the Ministry of the Interior, have about 250,000 men.
Strategic Rocket Forces
Operational Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) now total around 800, nearly double the 1967 figure.
Newer systems are deployed in individual sites which are hardened and widely separated.
There is some evidence that missiles using solid-fuel motors may come into service soon, and these would have faster reaction times.
At the present rate of construction and installation, the total number of ICBMs deployed may have reached 1,000 by the end of 1968.
A large three-stage rocket (NATO code Scrag) has been displayed in Moscow on several occasions since May 1965; the Russians have claimed that it has a global and orbital bombardment capability and a warhead of up to 50 megatons.
Since the Russians have also spoken of 'other' orbital systems in development, it may be that a more advanced rocket than Scrag provides the booster for the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) which, according to a statement by the US Secretary of Defense in November 1967, the Russians are now intensively testing.
The chief protection for ICBM launchers remains the hardening and separation of launch silos.
A limited Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system, based on the Galosh anti-missile missile, is being deployed around Moscow, and an advanced surface-to-air missile system, the so-called 'Tallin Line', has been noted in course of installation along the eastern Baltic coast and north-eastwards.
It is now thought that the 'Tallin Line' does not include any ABM systems, but it is probable that its radars extend the coverage provided by the early-warning system of the Moscow ABM defences.
The number of Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) and Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) remains at about 750.
The liquid-fuelled MRBM Sandal and IRBM Skean, with ranges of 1,100 and over 2,000 miles respectively, may be supplemented at some time in the future by solid-fuel missiles, which could be mobile.
MRBMs and IRBMs are deployed near the western, southern, and eastern borders of the USSR, the majority being situated in the western USSR, and thus cover most strategic and semi-tactical targets such as airfields in Western Europe, Japan, and probably China.
The operational personnel of the Strategic Rocket Forces, under the command of Marshal Krylov, now totals about 250,000.
Air Defence
The Air Defence Command (PVO) is a separate command of anti-aircraft artillery and surfaceto-air missile units, using an early-warning system based on radar, and fighter-interceptor squadrons for identification and possible interception of hostile targets.
Total personnel in the PVO numbers about 500,000, of which ground elements account for 250,000.
Air defence weapons now in service include:
(1) Anti-aircraft artillery: 23mm, 57mm, 85mm, 100mm, and 130mm guns, and ZSU-57-2 twin-barrelled guns and ZSU-23-4 four-barrelled SP guns on tank chassis. Guns over 57mm may be being phased out in favour of surface-to-air missiles.
(2) Surface-to-air missiles.
Guideline: A two-stage boosted anti-aircraft missile with an impact range of about 31 statute miles, and effective to a height of between 1,000 and 80,000ft.
Griffon: A two-stage boosted missile now used in the anti-aircraft role. Its impact range is greater than that of Guideline, and its altitude capability is somewhat greater.
Ganef: A mobile anti-aircraft missile with solid-fuel boosters. These are twin-mounted on tracked carriers and may have been assigned to ground forces in the field.
Goa: A two-stage missile possibly intended to replace Guideline. Only limited operational deployment is thought to have taken place.
Gainful: A new missile, twin-mounted on a tracked vehicle.
Galosh: A multi-stage, solid-fuel anti-ballistic missile missile, now deployed in limited numbers around Moscow. It is believed to have a range of several hundred miles and to carry a nuclear warhead in the 1-2 megaton range. It is therefore only suitable for interception at high altitude and for area defence. This feature and the nature of the radars associated with it suggest that its function is the defence of the north-western USSR, which contains a high proportion of Soviet industrial capacity and many of her major cities. As at present deployed, it provides a limited defence against Minuteman firings from North America or Polaris missiles from the Arctic Ocean.
(3) Fighters. There are probably about 3,700 PVO fighters in service, the majority of which are MiG-17 Fresco, MiG-19 Farmer, and Su-9 Fishpot. Newer aircraft include the Yak-28 Firebar and Yak-42 Fiddler, the latter of which has a maximum speed of the order of 1,200 mph and an operational ceiling of about 60,000 ft.
Army The total size of the Soviet Army (including the ground elements of the Air Defence Command) is now estimated at about 2,000,000 men.
It is thought to be organized in 140 divisions.
There are three degrees of combat-readiness in the Soviet Army, and probably less than half the 140 divisions are at or near full combat-strength.
The remainder could be brought up to strength at short notice, although about a quarter of the total are at the lowest degree of readiness and would require major reinforcement.
The location of divisional headquarters is roughly as follows:
26 divisions in Central and Eastern Europe (20 in East Germany, 2 in Poland, 4 in Hungary);
63 divisions in European USSR (i.e., west of the Ural Mountains and north of the Caucasus);
8 divisions in central USSR (i.e., between the Ural Mountains and Lake Baikal);
28 divisions in southern USSR (Caucasus and Soviet Central Asia); and
15 divisions in the Soviet Far East (i.e., east of Lake Baikal).
The 26 divisions in Eastern Europe are maintained at or near combat-strength, as are about 10 of those in the Far East.
The other 5 divisions in the Far East are probably in the second category of readiness: below combatstrength, but not requiring major reinforcement in the event of war. The 63 divisions in European USSR include most of the remaining combat ready divisions. The 8 divisions in central USSR would mostly require major reinforcement, as would 10 of the 28 divisions in southern USSR.
By types of division, the distribution is roughly as follows:
(1) Motorized rifle divisions (10,500 men and 190 medium tanks at full strength): about 88.
(2) Tank divisions (9,000 men and 350 medium and heavy tanks at full strength): about 45.
(3) Airborne divisions (7,000 men and 40 self-propelled guns at full strength): about 7.
10 of the tank divisions are in East Germany, 4 in the Far East, 2 in Hungary, and 1 in Poland.
It has been estimated that the force of 26 divisions in Central Europe might be increased to 70 within a month if mobilization and movement were unimpeded by interdiction bombing.
The airborne forces total some 50,000 men, organized in about 7 divisions.
The transport fleet could lift 3 of these divisions and supporting elements simultaneously over short or medium ranges.
Use of the large An-22 transport for air-landing of airborne troops, including tactical missiles of the Frog type and mobile Ganef air defence missiles, was demonstrated at the July 1967 air show in Moscow.
There are small numbers of Soviet military personnel stationed outside the Warsaw Pact area mostly in the capacity of instructors and advisers.
These include about 1,000 in Cuba, a total of 3,000 in Egypt and Syria, and a further 1,000 in Vietnam.
The military doctrines of the Soviet Army still envisage a major offensive role for it in future war and accordingly emphasize training for large-scale advance at high speed.
Infantry formations contain covered Armoured Personnel Carriers which would enable them to advance across radio-active terrain.
But in the past year or two, increasing emphasis has been given to preparing the Soviet theatre forces in both a conventional and a nuclear environment, suggesting Soviet adoption of a doctrine along the lines of the 'flexible response' strategy recently adopted by NATO.
Tactical nuclear missile units are now organic to Soviet formations whether inside or outside the Soviet Union, and the conventional fire-power of a Soviet division is as great as that of most divisions in NATO.
The Soviet Army is well equipped for offensive and defensive chemical warfare, but its long-standing logistic shortcomings for extended operations have been only partly remedied. Its equipment includes:
(1) Tanks. Tanks in service with armoured formations include the T-62 medium tank with a 115mm gun, the T-54/55 medium tank with a 100mm gun, the T-10 heavy tank with a 122mm gun, and the PT-76 amphibious reconnaissance tank. The T-34 medium tank is now obsolete.
Most Soviet tanks are equipped for amphibious crossing by deep wading, and many carry infrared night-fighting equipment.
(2) Artillery. The main types are 85mm, 100mm, 122mm, 130mm, 152mm, and 203mm.
Lorry-mounted multi-barrelled rocket-launchers play an important part in Soviet artillery operations.
The main specialized anti-tank weapons are the 57mm guns and the Snapper, Sagger, and Swatter missiles.
Self-propelled assault guns are becoming obsolete except in airborne divisions.
The Soviet Army also has a considerable air defence capability, including surface-to-air missiles.
(3) Missiles. Tactical missiles in use by the ground forces include those of the Frog and Scud series, which are carried on modified tank chassis and wheeled launchers, and have ranges of up to 150 miles according to the type of warhead carried (high-explosive, chemical, or nuclear).
There is also a larger cruise missile, Shaddock, with a range of up to 300 miles.
Navy The strength of the Soviet Navy and Naval Air Force is 465,000 men.
In total tonnage, it is the second biggest navy in the world, and its main strength lies in the submarine fleet.
A high proportion of the fleet is kept in commission.
There are indications that the Naval Air Force and the missile-bearing submarines have an increasingly important role in Soviet strategy.
(1) Surface Ships. The surface ships of the Soviet navy consist of the following:
3 Kresta-class and 4 Kynda-class cruisers with Shaddock surface-to-surface cruise and Goa surface-to-air guided missiles.
12 Sverdlov-class cruisers (one with Goa surface-to-air missiles).
4 other cruisers (used for training purposes).
1 helicopter carrier (LPH type) with Goa anti-aircraft missiles.
10 Krupny-class destroyers with Strela surfaceto-surface cruise missiles.
6 Kildin-class destroyers with Strela missiles.
10 Kashin-class guided missile anti-aircraft and anti-submarine destroyers.
30 Kotlin-class anti-aircraft and anti-submarine destroyers (of which 1 or 2 carry surface-toair guided missiles).
50 Skory-class anti-aircraft and anti-submarine destroyers.
100 other ocean-going escort ships.
270 coastal escorts and submarine chasers.
170 ocean-going minesweepers.
160 coastal minesweepers.
100 Osa- and 50 Komar-class patrol boats with Styx short-range cruise missiles.