Аннотация: A detention of Sergei Furgal; the Liberal Democratic Party Party and the approaching single voting day. A political science essay.
A detention of Sergei Furgal; the Liberal Democratic Party Party and the approaching single voting day. A political science essay.
The detention of Sergei Furgal [on 9 July 2020] formed public expectations of administrative, legal, personnel decisions. It was a few days ago.
However, it is already becoming clear today that the picture of the future (after two weeks of demonstrations and protests) has changed. The detention of Sergei Furgal influence, now, on the results of the election turnout and the results of voting on a single voting day in September 2020.
The events had a particularly significant impact on the reputation of the federal structures of the LDPR.
A significant part of citizens have a not very loyal attitude towards the federal structures of the LDPR and towards Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
Some of the citizens suspect the federal structures of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia that they are portraying opposition and creating the appearance of a competitive democracy.
All major initiatives, promoted by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, led to a very mixed results.
One of these initiatives retains its brilliance, its charm. We are talking about the creation of federal districts. However, the scandals around some (federal) district-level officials show the obvious thing - bureaucratic structures without a real parliamentary counterbalance are turning into the center of ineffective actions and decisions. That is, even this initiative (with the support of Vladimir Zhirinovsky), in fact, demonstrates its lack of intellectual depth, a low (a negative?) utility.
The detention of Sergei Furgal presented the federal structures of the Liberal Democratic Party for public in a very ambiguous form.
What detail from this stream of events you do not take - they all look very, very ambiguous, unfavorable for the federal structures of the Liberal Democratic Party.
There is nothing to catch, in order to begin to glorify the federal structures of the Liberal Democratic Party - at least for a some, for a single reason.
On the contrary, the position, the situation of the provincial structures of the Liberal Democratic Party may be different (may be the absolutly other). For example, one can assume that somewhere, for example, in the Khabarovsk krai, the authority [reputation] of declaratively opposition provincial party (including the LDPR) structures has even grown.
Naturally, this situation cannot but affect the turnout results and the voting results in the elections in September 2020.
However, we must distinguish between two processes. The first is the turnout or a lack of turnout of voters for elections, a filling out of a ballots. The second is the execution of protocols on the results of voting.
At some point, a some digits will be announced (through the federal media) under some sauce - at the time, when the voting is completed, and the vote counting is began. It should be understood that any person involved in the preparation of the protocols, and inclined to excessive moral impulses, finds himself face to face with a huge bureaucratic structure with a colossal power. The result of the confrontation in such a situation is obvious. In general, the voting results announced at the start of the counting of votes through the federal media and the voting results in the protocols will not differ very much.
In some cases, electoral functionaries are sidelined - they are almost unnecessary and not in demand in electronic voting. There a completely another (new) people order, perform music and applaud.
However, a recent events (voting on amendments to the Constitution) have shown the emergence in some (a very few) cases of a kind of immunity to external influences among members of election commissions (individual and collective immunity). One of the subjects of the federation even spoke out against the amendments to the Constitution. In some cases, the vote was far from the expected results. However, these are, still, exceptions.
So, the detention of Sergei Furgal (with subsequent events) has a direct and significant impact on the voting results in September 2020.
It would seem that this is an obvious thesis. But at what point did this idea become apparent? One way or another, this thesis should be formulated.
How exactly the detention of Sergei Furgal will affect the turnout and the balance of votes - we are not ready to predict this at the moment ...
Taking this opportunity, we are formulating criteria for verifiability and effective control of voting results:
(1) face-to-face [personal], (2) direct, (3) one-day voting (4) by a paper ballots (5) using transparent ballot boxes, with (6) immediate (evening-night) (7) manual public collegial vote counting [under public control], (8) with immediate announcement and documenting of voting results; and (9) keeping ballots pending a possible judicial (court) review of voting results.
Electronic, multi-day voting and other novelties do not fit into the criteria of verifiability and effective control of voting results.
July 26, 2020 07:30
Translation from Russian into English: July 26, 2020 12:56.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Задержание Сергея Фургала, ЛДПР и приближающийся единый день голосования. Политологический очерк'.