Аннотация: Bargaining habits and political hostages. The political history of the Lukashenko regime is being written in a pre-trial detention center. Essay.
Bargaining habits and political hostages. The political history of the Lukashenko regime is being written in a pre-trial detention center. Essay.
1. Master of bargaining.
By chance, many years ago I got the opportunity to ask the driver (Belarusian) of a huge heavy-duty vehicle how life is in Belarus. The answer was this. Life is very difficult for the vast majority of the population. Only Lukashenko's "elite", which is insignificant in number, lives well.
Nevertheless, observing Lukashenko's constant attempts to bargain (to achieve, to win) more and more benefits from the Russian leadership, it was impossible to deny his ability to conduct continuous political and economic bargaining, to use any nuances in Russia's relations with Europe ...
2. Some merits of Lukashenko.
In addition to the ability to conduct continuous bargaining, Lukashenko showed a slight inclination towards a new direction in cultural and historical politics. Although slowly and in small volumes, the restoration of the period of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the period of the struggle of Velikolithuanians and East-Republicans against the partition of the Commonwealth began in the collective memory of the Belarusian people.
3. Torture, kidnapping, seizure of political hostages.
The post-election events in August 2020 (election were won by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya), have added up to Lukashenko's political image (filled Lukashenko's political image) with such concepts as torture, abductions and political prisoners.
How are political prisoners different from political hostages?
Prisoners are people who are imprisoned for political reasons.
When such people become the object of bargaining, they acquire a qualities political hostages.
4. The political history of the Lukashenko regime is being written in a pre-trial detention center.
According to alleged media versions (at the level of rumors), yesterday, October 10, 2020, at a 4-hour meeting with some members of the Coordination Council in the pre-trial detention center, Lukashenko said that the Constitution cannot be written during of actions on the streets. First, you don't need to over complicate the problem. There are many constitutions and their projects in the world. Secondly, the main problem is not the text of the constitution, but the observance, implementation of constitutional norms. Third, people seeking to write a constitution on the streets is a myth. Fourthly, people went out and go out into the streets not to write a constitution, but to bring the political administration of Belarus into line with the will of the Belarusian people. Protesters cannot be accused of constitutional violations, as the original violation was committed by falsifiers of election results.
What is needed now is not clever words invented by the political sages of the local spill, but the release of political prisoners (hostages?) and other steps that demonstrate a sincere will to compromise.
5. Lukashenko against Lukashenko.
Undoubtedly, Lukashenko, with his experience, with his some merit and with a certain percentage of his supporters, would be useful in the new democratic pro-European Belarus as a figure of a nominally high level, but with a minimum amount of powers.
At the same time, Lukashenko's inflexibility, senseless cruelty (keeping [prisoning] of people, who was captured for political reasons before the August 2020 elections, torture, abductions, political prisoners (political hostages?)) - all this means Lukashenko's gradual displacement, movement outside of the civilized political field. ... An increasing number of participants in the political process perceive him as an odious figure ...
The opinion is gaining more and more strength that Lukashenko has no prospects, that he should simply leave ...
Perhaps the third and last bell rang, and Lukashenko is faced with the need to decide whether to jump into the train of political compromise.
Lukashenko has less and less time to act in his own favor, less and less opportunities.
(Maybe he is pinning hopes on primitive political violence? If so, then he is not the only representative of such a worldview ... The fate of such figures is known ...).
October 11, 2020 08:26
Translation from Russian into English: October 13, 2020 19:47.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Привычка торговаться и политические заложники. Политическая история режима Лукашенко пишется в следственном изоляторе. Очерк'.