Аннотация: Results of the 2020 Moldovan elections and the legal representatives of the Belarusian people. Two political hypotheses.
Results of the 2020 Moldovan elections and the legal representatives of the Belarusian people. Two political hypotheses.
Maia Sandu won the presidential elections in Moldova in 2020 (November 15, 2020) with a huge advantage.
Our first hypothesis is that Moldovan voters - witnesses of the Belarusian events - felt and feel a certain commonality of historical destiny with the Belarusian people - being elements of the East-Republican political system. Accordingly, the sympathy for the Belarusian people on the part of the Moldovan voters and some other considerations related to the Belarusian events - all this influenced the expression of the will of the Moldovan voters.
If we accept this thesis as a basis, then the mood of the Moldovan voters in favor of the Belarusians can significantly help Maia Sandu in further political steps.
For example, what steps can we talk about?
For example, about the formation of the East-Republican humanitarian space and about the signing of an agreement on the establishment of the East-Republican humanitarian mission. The term "East-Republican" does not mean limiting the membership, but the main focus of a political attention.
Legal representatives of the Belarusian people could come up with an initiative (or support the initiative) to create an East-Republican humanitarian space and to sign an agreement on the establishment of an East-Republican humanitarian mission. It would be quite natural for the legal representatives of the Belarusian people to do such a step - to join such a mission.
Firstly, such political steps would meet with the general sympathy of Moldovan voters (if we adhere to our first hypothesis).
Secondly, they would give Maia Sandu's foreign policy plans a broader context, and, consequently, make these plans more understandable for a wide range of Europeans. These plans would receive broader and stronger support.
Thirdly, such political steps would contribute to the broadest possible international recognition of the legal representatives of the Belarusian people de facto and de jure. The inclusion of the legal representatives of the Belarusian people in the broad negotiation process, which will, possibly, be initiated by Maia Sandu, would especially facilitate such recognition.
Fourth, the East-Republican humanitarian space could become a prototype for the East-Republican economic space. With a relative decrease in the share of geopolitical rent received from Russia, the republics that were previously part of the USSR are faced with the task of adapting their economies to commodity markets. It is unlikely that Western markets are eagerly waiting for new competitors (however, new competitors, especially from Asia, come regardless of whether they are waiting for them or not, whether they are happy or not to see them...). At the same time, the countries of Western Europe can be quite sympathetic to the creation of new markets in the form of the East-Republican economic space and to the distribution of these markets among the elements of the East-Republican political system. If the East-Republican economic space develops, then integration with the developed markets of Western Europe can take place on a parity basis.
Looking back at the months of 2020, we can state the emergence of several windows of opportunity for the legal representatives of the Belarusian people, for example:
1. Recognition of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as president-elect in the Resolution of the European Parliament adopted on September 14, 2020 ("18. Expects the Commission, the Member States and the EEAS to provide more exposure and legitimization to the president-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the National Coordination Council of Belarus initiated by her"- https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/B-9-2020-0272_EN.html).
2. Meeting on September 29, 2020 in Vilnius, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya with French President Emmanuel Macron.
How effectively these windows of opportunity were used is a separate issue. Perhaps we will write on this theme.
We put forward one more, a second, hypothesis. The election of Maia Sandu with the support of Moldovan voters who witnessed the Belarusian events, the foreign policy initiatives by Maia Sandu (gradually acquiring a distinct form) concerning issues within the East-Republican political space - these events open up a new window of opportunity for the legal representatives of the Belarusian people.
[MDCCCV. Trishka's Kaftan. The Media sketch. - November 2, 2020.
MDCCCVII. Belarus and Moldova. Political and historical essay. - November 3, 2020.
MDCCCXLII. Brandenburg Gate on Kosti-NF. A story. - November 18, 2020.]
November 30, 2020 14:25
Translation from Russian into English: November 30, 2020 22:06.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Итоги молдавских выборов 2020 года и законные представители белорусского народа. Две политические гипотезы'.