Аннотация: Russian ruble and Turkish lira. An economic essay.
Russian ruble and Turkish lira. An economic essay.
Starting March 11, 2022, the United States imposed a ban on the supply of dollar bills to Russia.
Earlier (March 1, 2022), the EU announced a ban on the supply of euro banknotes to Russia.
In 2021, Russian banks imported cash dollars worth $16.24 billion into the country. About ?8 billion were imported in euro cash last year.
On March 10, 2022, the dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was 116.0847 rubles per dollar.
On March 11, 2022, the rate was 120.3785.
March 12, 2022 (March 13, 2022) rate - 116.7517.
The depreciation of the dollar and the growth of the ruble (March 12, 2022) looks like an interesting phenomenon.
In our opinion, the main tasks today are (1) restoring the convertibility of the ruble and (2) stabilizing the depreciation of the ruble.
What is the meaning of the depreciation of the dollar and the corresponding appreciation of the ruble (March 12, 2022)?
According to our assumption, the meaning of this action is to present financial and monetary policy in a favorable light ... (Defiantly "to straighten a back" ...).
Maybe there is hope for a real growth of the ruble exchange rate? What are the prerequisites for such a hope? And who generates (expresses) such hope?
In general, the appreciation of the ruble and the depreciation of the dollar (March 12, 2022) is an interesting phenomenon. From the point of view of intellectual uniqueness, it can be put next to the increase in the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to the level of 20 percent per annum (from February 28, 2022).
Is the ruble really going up?
This can be verified by indirect data.
For example, there is a currency whose exchange rate is falling (in relation to world currencies) - the Turkish lira. In relation to the Turkish lira, what does the Russian ruble look like?
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the ruble has been increasing throughout 2022 ('average' values).
Only an attempt to increase the exchange rate of the ruble, made on March 12, 2022, resulted in an increase in the exchange rate of the ruble and a decrease in the exchange rate of the lira.
The Turkish lira (TRY) exchange rate on March 12, 2022 (March 13, 2022) is set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the level of 79.1843 rubles. (March 11, 2022 - 81.6441).
Theoretically, it can be assumed that difficulties with the exchange of Russian rubles for dollars and euros will lead to an increase in demand for the Turkish lira - even if it is a falling currency, it can be exchanged for major world currencies.
We have repeatedly written about the depreciation of the Turkish lira (against the US dollar), tried to explain this process by lowering the discount rate of the Central Bank of Turkey and through the issuance (money emission) of the lira, and expressed certain confidence that the Turkish currency will strengthen.
According to our hypothetical reasoning, Turkish currency could strengthen in connection with the entry into the lira of active businessmen (and withdrawal from the lira "rentier"), in connection with the completion of large investment projects that require money emission, and the appearance of income out of these projects.
However, in the current situation, the Turkish lira may have another opportunity to strengthen.
This possibility is connected with a possible increase in demand for the Turkish lira from Russian citizens... The Turkish lira may receive significant support from the Russian ruble.
Of course, there are other currencies besides the Turkish lira. In addition, there are different options for the development of foreign policy events.
So we do not insist on the accuracy of our forecasts for the Turkish lira. The nearest future will show observers how the situation with the Russian ruble will affect (if it does) the Turkish lira.
[MMDCCXXXV. Turkey, 2022: how to get out of the "crisis"? A note. - January 31, 2022.
MMDCCCI. An increase in the discount rate of the Central Bank and an unknown amount of emission. An economic note. - February 28, 2022.].
March 12, 2022 01:20
Translation from Russian into English: March 12, 2022 02:16
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Российский рубль и турецкая лира. Экономический очерк'.
{ 2851. Российский рубль и турецкая лира. Экономический очерк.
MMDCCCXXI. Russian ruble and Turkish lira. An economic essay. }