The interagency group conducted another inspection of the scene of the landslide on the river Bureya.
April 22 10:20 am
The task force of the Main Department of the EMERCOM of Russia in the Khabarovsk territory together with representatives of the Feb RAS, the Amur basin Department, the Ministry of nature of Russia and the Khabarovsk territory once again inspected the Bureya river at the site of the landslide in the Verkhnebureinsky district.
Scientists made measurements of speed of a current in a proran, took samples of water and soil for further studying. "Current speed during the different periods changes depending on water levels. Measurements were carried out by a float-operated way as tool methods of a research are impossible here. According to today's calculations the speed of a current is more than 2 m/s, an alignment [the wide of the channel] about 30 meters, the depth varies throughout the channel", - the head of the laboratory of a hydrology and hydrogeology of Institute of water and environmental problems of the FEB RAS Vladimir Kim told. Also the staff of scientific institute carried out photo and video filming of the area by means of the pilotless device.
"Now on-scene situation of a descent of rocky breeds quiet. The freeze-up remains. Thickness of ice is up to 50 centimeters from meter. Above and below the proran are sites with open water, - the head of airmobile group of rescuers, the deputy chief of the Head department of the Ministry of Emergency Measures of Russia in Khabarovsk Krai Ivan Kolontay noted. - Therefore prior to the beginning of an ice drift rescuers tear off ice fields already now with logs which are in the top part of a reservoir, and direct them through proran. The mash phenomena are possible. However, the flow rate is such that allows you to easily pass and trees and ice floes. Fall of rocky breed at positive air temperatures goes rather intensively, however there is no threat for a proran. We conduct monitoring of a situation as visually, and by means of the pilotless equipment".
Rescuers works daily all day long. Separating logs from ice, they tow them by the boat to the place the proran and lowered down. Work for rescuers partly habitual as they annually are attracted to the accident-free admission of flood waters in various areas and regions of the Far East. However such scales of a descent of breed and their consequences are noted for the first time.
"With warming, gradual thawing of snow increase in inflow of water was a few days ago noted. At a hydropost in the village of Chekunda slight increase of level was noted. In next few days water level is stabilized, and then its slight increase in the top bowl is expected again. ... Active snowmelt and inflow of water is expected in the first decade of May. The threat for settlements is not predicted", - the head of the Amur Basin Water Administration of Federal Agency for Water Resources Andrey Makarov explained.
Rescuers arrived at the site of the landslide on April 2 and will be on duty until the stabilization of the situation and the passage of the ice drift on the Bureya river, approximately until the ... beginning of the second decade of may. They have all the necessary tools and equipment for rescue operations. Live in a tent camp, where there are necessary conditions for Autonomous existence: residential tents, bath, dining room, utility units, there is a communication, diesel generators, heat guns. Originally necessary stock of products and fuel was delivered together with rescuers on aircrafts of the Khabarovsk air rescue center Emercom of Russia. As required food and fuels and lubricants are replenished by means of the helicopter.
Besides in Verkhnebureinsky district, to the village of Chekunda, in the morning on April 21 there arrived the second group of rescuers of Emercom of Russia. ... will conduct monitoring of a flood situation at the settlement, to hold preventive events and if necessary to help residents of the village.
It should be noted that the work of the operational group of EMERCOM of Russia in the Khabarovsk Krai, representatives of scientific community and concerned agencies is carried out within performance of instructions of the Minister of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation Evgeny Zinichev which were given at the beginning of April at a coordination interdepartmental meeting in Verkhnebureinsky district. The situation is on constant control of Emercom of Russia and executive authorities of Khabarovsk Krai, federal executive authorities." [http://27.mchs.gov.ru/pressroom/news/item/8037819]
2) Plans and forecasts.
"https://tass.ru/obschestvo/6370102
APR 24, 12:12
Scientists explore coast of Bureya in the summer to reveal places of possible landslides
Now rescuers monitor the situation on the ground, if necessary, to transfer the information collected to specialists
KHABAROVSK, April 24. /TASS./ Scientists of the Institute of water and environmental problems of the far Eastern branch of the RAS will go to the Bureya river to study the places of possible descent of new landslides. This TASS said the head of the laboratory of hydrology and hydrogeology Institute Vladimir Kim.
"In late may - early June, an expedition to the Bureya is planned, in which the area will be assessed for the descent of new landslides," Kim said. (...)
Kim specified that scientists will work both at the place of a landslide and at other sections of the river. As the head of the Amur Basin Water Administration of Federal Agency for Water Resources Andrey Makarov reported to the agency, now the Bureya Reservoir is still held down by ice, slight increase of inflow of water because of warming is noted, there is a fall of soil from the hill from where the landslide came down. (...)" [https://tass.ru/obschestvo/6370102]
"https://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=3140567
23 April 201910:41
Scientists predict on Bureya several new landslides at once
GTRK "Far East"
Scientists predict several new landslides on Bureya. Possible risks were assessed by the interdepartmental group. To do this, experts arrived at the site of the restored channel. Geologists have to predict how nature can behave, which in winter has already shown its character, reports the far Eastern STRC.
The attention of experts is directed to this steep rock now. Exactly from here several million tons of soil which blocked Bureya broke away."The hill is crumbling, although now it is almost imperceptible. Crackling is heard constantly. Down so far small pieces of breed break", - the correspondent Tatyana Shevchuk reported.
Experts believe that this is only the beginning. The rock face is all cracked and unstable. The thawed soil can aggravate a situation. "Most likely, the right slope and the top part will crumble. Already 200 thousand cubic meters [of rocky masses] can fill up proran" - the head of department of monitoring exogenous geological processes of Federal State Budgetary Institution Gidrospetsgeologiya Alexey Vozhik commented.
And, depending on weather conditions, it can happen in a period of a week to a month. And this is only part of the possible consequences of a major landslide.
(...)
Then everything will depend on the behavior of Bureya. The difference between the levels in the two basins separated by a rock dam was reduced due to the fact that the military laid a new channel. However, due to the melting of snow, the water inflow continues to increase. "Before this was not here. At this time, the flow of water here should be 7 - 10 times less... " explained the head of the Amur STB of the Federal Agency for water resources Andrey Makarov.
Bureya, as always, is unstable at this time. To understand the nature of her behavior, scientists take off all data on the place of the restored course [channel]. "Speed rather big - about 2 m/s. Alignment width - 30 meters. Depths different" - the Head of Laboratory of a hydrology and hydrogeology of Institute of water and environmental problems Vladimir Kim specified.
Via the channel more than 250 cubic meters of water rush every second - it is three railway tanks. But at the same time width proran small. Because of this, the canal can be completely block fallen trees and ice debris. That it did not occur, rescuers now manually transport trunks to a channel.
According to forecasts of experts, the maximum inflow of water to the place of a collapse will begin during active thawing in mountains of snow cover. There will be it approximately at the beginning of May.
Text: State TV and Radio Broadcasting Company "Far East"" [https://www.vesti.ru/doc.html? id=3140567]
3. Brief chronological information.
December 12, 2018. In a zone of the Bureya Reservoir there was a descent of rocky soil to overlapping of the bed of the Bureya River around merge to the Sredny SandarRiver (the Middle Sandar River). [http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/activities/list.php?part=17] [http://planet.iitp.ru/news.html]
December 21, 2018. Alexander Markanov and Anatoly Ivanov left on hunting to the Verkhnebureinsky Region of [Khabarovsk Krai] and found out that across the bed of the Bureya River the big heap of stones, the earth and trees appeared. The top of one of hills was demolished. [https://www.dvnovosti.ru/khab/2018/12/25/92975/]
On January 10, 2019 "In Verkhnebureinsky MR of [Khabarovsk Krai] the emergency regime (the decision of the head of the district of 09.01.2019 No. 2) is introduced." [http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/activities/list.php?part=17]
January 10, 2019. The publication (of January 10, 2019) on the Internet:
"Russian Defense Ministry; Original @mod_russia account
At the request of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin of force and means of the Russian Defense Ministry are used for clearing of the river course and carrying out drilling-and-blasting works for restoration of the normal hydrological mode of the Bureya Reservoir" [https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/1083574220213358593].
January 13, 2019. "According to the Ministry of Defence, five VTA planes will be involved: four Il-76 and one An-124 Ruslan which will deliver more than 175 tons of freight to airfields to Khabarovsk Krai. To the place of a jam the engineering equipment and special engineering charges will be delivered by helicopters of army aircraft and the motor transport". [https://www.interfax.ru/russia/645889] (16.01.2019. "Explosives for carrying out engineering works on a blockage to Khabarovsk Krai and the Amur region deliver in hundreds of tons. They are brought echelons by rail. Also the aviation is involved: the largest transport Ruslan An-124 plane delivered to Ukrainka air base for once more than 75 tons of engineering charges ..." [https://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201901160939-ujum.htm])
January 13, 2019. "January 13, 2019 08: 57"The camp with tents and a field kitchen has already been set up near the reservoir " [https://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=3103926&cid=8]
January 13, 2019. "on January 14, 15:52. On Wednesday the governor of Khabarovsk Krai Sergey Furgal visited the place of the landslide in Verkhnebureinsky district" [https://ria.ru/20190116/1549437454.html]
January 17, 2019. In the territory of the Bureya region [of Amur region] the emergency regime (the decision of the head of the district of 17.01.2019 No. 14) is introduced. [http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/activities/list.php?part=17]
January 19, 2019. In borders of the Verkhnebureinsky Region of [Khabarovsk Krai] the emergency regime of regional character (the resolution of the governor of Khabarovsk Krai of 19.01.2019 No. 38-rp) is introduced. [http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/activities/list.php?part=17]
January 21, 2019. (Annually) in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation the Day of engineering troops is celebrating. [https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/6015914?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop]
January 22, 2019. "The Metropolitan of Khabarovsk and Priamurie Artemy by helicopter arrived on January 22 in Verkhnebureinsky district" [https://todaykhv.ru/news/incident/18074/]
On January 22, 2019 "... The Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Dmitry Bulgakov arrived on January 22 to the Bureya Reservoir..." [https://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201901220824-qbqi.htm]
On January 24, 2019 "In this flight the crew came very close to the extreme take-off mass of the transport helicopter Mi-26. Unique flight was made by pilots of army aircraft of the Eastern Military District by heavy transport helicopter Mi-26. They transported from Ukrainka air base up to the river bank Bureya the 20-ton bulldozer. In this flight almost maximum take-off mass of this helicopter - 56 tons was reached. It was necessary to sit down on the small platform on the river bank. The task is carried successfully out ... Earlier helicopter pilots delivered a tanker truck fuel-servicing truck to the place of a landslide." [https://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201901241719-28k3.htm]
On January 28, 2019. "- Several pieces of equipment have passed to the place of blockage by winter road. Military struck [created] the road in the forest with a length of 75 km from the station Ushman to the mouth of the Chelpachi river for four days. Just amazing speed, - the head of Verkhnebureinsky district Alexey Maslov says."[https://todaykhv.ru/news/incident/18166/]
On January 29, 2019. "The dirt road was paved to the location of the explosions from the field camp along the crest of the [natural] dam " [https://asn24.ru/news/crime/59222/]
On January 31, 2019 "on January 31 the governor of the Amur region Vasily Orlov flew by helicopter for Khabarovsk Krai, to the place where on Bureya the hill slope collapsed [where the landslide was ]" [http://www.teleport2001.ru/news/2019-01-31/108115-gubernator-vasiliy-orlov-otpravilsya-k-mestu-zagadochnogo-opolznya-na-reke-buree.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop]
February 1, 2019. "Today, the soldiers completed the first stage of the rock explosion, which divided the Bureya reservoir into two pools. This was reported by Deputy defense Minister, the Hero of Russia, army General Dmitry Bulgakov during a trip to the place of events."[https://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201902010706-8huz.htm]
February 1, 2019. "01.02.2019 the channel is punched and hydraulic connection between the cut off part and main part of the Bureya reservoir is established" [http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/activities/detail.php?ID=545145]
On February 2, 2019 "The Bureya hydroelectric power station came to the mode of normal work" [https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/6071841]
February 12, 2019. The military personnel of the consolidated detachment Russian Defense Ministry liquidated the congestion on the Bureya River. [https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12217000@egNews]
February 12, 2019. Rewarding of personnel. According to the results of the unique operation, more than 80 servicemen awarded departmental awards of the Ministry of defense of Russia and more than 300 people with the medal "The Participant of liquidation of consequences of emergency situations on the river Bureya". [https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12217000@egNews]
February 15, 2019. "... Sappers left the the problematic [the difficult] place" [https://www.hab.kp.ru/daily/26942/3993597/]".
April 2, 2019. To the place of the landslide on the Bureya River the group of rescuers [Ministry of Emergency Situations] is brought. [https://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=3133238&utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop]
April 4, 2019. A situation with overlapping of the bed of the Bureya River in Verkhnebureinsky district as a result of a landslide was discussed by participants of a meeting of committee of the Legislative Duma of [Khabarovsk] Krai concerning construction, housing and public utilities and energy industry . [http://www.duma.khv.ru/Site.aspx?doc=270135036]
April 5, 2019. The Minister of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation Evgeny Zinichev, being in a working trip in Khabarovsk Krai, got acquainted with the situation developing as a result of a soil descent onto the bed of the Bureya River. ... He estimated a situation ... In field camp E. Zinichev held a coordination meeting [https://vk.com/gumchskhabarovsk]
April 21, 2019. "... In Verkhnebureinsky district, in the village Chekunda, on the morning of April 21, arrived the second group of rescuers EMERCOM of Russia..." [http://27.mchs.gov.ru/pressroom/news/item/8037819]
The comment.
""Most likely, the right slope and the top part will crumble. Already 200 thousand cubic meters [of rocky masses] can fill up proran" - the head of department of monitoring exogenous geological processes of Federal State Budgetary Institution Gidrospetsgeologiya Alexey Vozhik commented.
And, depending on weather conditions, it can happen in a period of a week to a month."
If the publication dated 23 April 2019, it follows that "in a period of one month" means till 23 may 2019.
I will not hide, there was desire to show irony in relation to all these forecasts and in relation to "crash" ["crackling"] which "is heard constantly".
But the position of an "alarm", of a "warnings" (in a situation where the main danger (99.99 %) already eliminated) - it, this position - win-win.
We "are alarmed"!! we're "worried"! we're warning!
Not for nothing make the life of much of us miserable under pretexts of care of us. - Win-win, often, position. ("You understand - we think of you!").
Anyway, but involuntarily there is a thought - about a situation on Bureya: - and suddenly, lives of rescuers - really in danger? What if really need to be careful? (And the reasonable care, reasonable foresight will never prevent).
You approach a situation from a position of common sense, you remember publications about landslides (from other regions) - generally it is the slow, gradual processes which are not posing an immediate threat for life of people ...
And yet - caution is needed. The safety of people (rescuers) must be ensured...
Let's move on to the topic of forecasts.
These are reflections (of a certain nature) on the future... And what about the publication of reports on the results of the visits, surveys and studies that have already taken place? "Research", we must assume, will continue. What about the publication of the results - in the interest of public access? Not a personal the money were spent ...
April 24, 2019 15:41
Translation from Russian into English: April 24, 2019 19:58.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Рассказ об интересе к Бурейской теме 24 апреля 2019 г.".