Аннотация: The Story about interest in the Bureya theme on June 27, 2019
The Story about interest in the Bureya theme on June 27, 2019
1. (New) 3D model.
"https://tass.ru/nauka/6583025
24 JUN [2019], 09:05
Scientists have made 3D-models of soil on the Bureya river in the Khabarovsk territory
They will help in the future to make accurate calculations of the consequences of this phenomenon
TASS, June 24. A group of scientists from the far Eastern and Siberian branches of the Russian Academy of Sciences during an expedition to the place of a soil descent at the Bureya reservoir in the Khabarovsk krai built 3D models of the situation, which will help specialists to predict possible complications of the flood situation in this area. This was reported on Monday by the press service of the regional Central Board of the emergencies Ministry.
"The main purpose of the expedition - the determination of priorities the reasons of a descent of the rock mass in the bed of the river. The collapse threatened to create an emergency situation related to the complication of the passage of the spring flood, as well as the possible flooding of the village Chekunda. The materials obtained by the researchers of the RAS and the 3D models of the situation development will allow the specialists of the EMERCOM of Russia to predict the probability of complications of the hydrological situation in this part of the river during the summer and autumn floods," the Deputy head of the EMERCOM of Russia for the Khabarovsk territory on protection, monitoring and prevention of emergencies Andrei Prokopenko said in the message.
Rescuers of the far Eastern regional search and rescue team inspected the site of the collapse with the help of an unmanned aerial vehicle. This photo and video will help to calculate the exact size of the opening in the body of the landslide, to assess its condition and stability of the rock. During the expedition, it was also possible to determine the height of the wave at the site of the landslide and within a radius of 5 km. The numerical and mathematical data obtained in the study of the landslide and the models built on them in the future will allow scientists to make accurate calculations of its consequences when detecting such a phenomenon.
"We managed to do the main thing: to collect the material that is necessary to understand the mechanism of what happened, to create a three-dimensional model of the descent of rock and the emergence of such a rare phenomenon as a river tsunami. The work carried out, especially the study of the underwater part of the landslide, will allow to establish whether there is a probability of a repetition of this phenomenon in this place, how dangerous it is in other places of the Khabarovsk territory", - quoted in the press service of the Deputy Director of the Institute of water environmental problems of the Feb RAS Alexei makhinov.
The descent of the soil on the Bureya reservoir occurred in December 2018, the collapsed rock massif divided the reservoir into two parts. Scientists described the incident as a landslide. Military by blasting punched the channel in a jam. Through the channel water went. Experts and representatives of regional authorities reported on the threat of flooding of the village of Chekunda and other settlements because of the soil. "RusHydro" in may reported that the blockage in the Bureya reservoir no longer prevents the free flow of water. The size of the channel created by military explosives on the site of the landslide, increased during the spring flood."[https://tass.ru/nauka/6583025]
"https://amurmedia.ru/news/825263/
EMERCOM and the scientific group completed work at the site of the landslide in the river Bureya in the Khabarovsk territory
The conducted research will allow to establish whether there is a probability of repetition of this phenomenon
#БурейскийМетеорит [# BureaMeteorite]
Society June 24, 15:30
"We worked from early morning until late at night to make as many surveys, measurements and calculations as possible. Of course, we were tired, - said the Deputy Director of the Institute of water environmental problems of Feb RAS Alexey Makhinov. - But we managed to do the main thing: to collect the material that is necessary to understand the mechanism of what happened, to create a three-dimensional model of the descent of rock and the occurrence of such a rare phenomenon as a river tsunami. The work carried out, especially the study of the underwater part of the landslide, will allow to establish whether there is a probability of a repetition of this phenomenon in this place, how dangerous it is in other places of the Khabarovsk territory." [https://amurmedia.ru/news/825263/]
2. The supplement to information on the dynamics of the situation in the (former) natural dam, (former) spontaneous reservoir and adjacent areas.
The Bureya landslide entered the top ten of the world's largest cataclysms
GTRK "far East"
(...)
After all the winter turmoil, Bureya seems to have finally calmed down. The water levels in the upper and lower bays are equal. The channel has increased in all respects. (...) Permafrost, previously considered one of the causes of the emergency, not detected.
Scientists came to the conclusion that millions of tons of soil descended into the Bureya due to the influence of tectonic fragmentation of rocks, a large angle of the mountain, and the human factor.
(...)
Experts have received accurate data on the height of the wave resulting from the descent of rocks only now. Until recently, it was believed that the maximum height of the water flow was about sixty meters. However, these figures were underestimated.
"The trees on the left Bank of the new riverbed Bureya are located at an altitude of 35 meters. At the same time, the water rose another 10 meters above this mark. On the right Bank, where the military camp was located ... the wave reached a maximum height of 90 meters. These indicators allow to include the Bureya tsunami in the top ten largest cataclysms in the world", - Tatyana Shevchuk reports.
Scientists and rescuers summed up the preliminary results of the expedition to the Bureya anomaly in the Verkhnebureinsky district of the Khabarovsk territory.
They, in particular, managed to create a scientific model of the descent of a huge mass of soil into the water and the tsunami that followed. In addition, they called the place where such a phenomenon can occur again.
According to Vyacheslav gusyakov, head of the tsunami laboratory at the Institute of computational mathematics and mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, the closest candidate for the repetition of the Bureya scenario is the reservoir on the Inguri river. (...).
The height of the dam is 260 m and the reservoir itself several times deeper than the Bureya. ...the landslide is about 1 km from the body of the dam, reports IA "Khabarovsk territory today" with reference to the expert.
Experts say that the mathematical model, built on the results of this expedition, will calculate how high the waves will be and how far the tsunami will reach when the soil collapses on the same scale as the Bureya.
Scientists are also studying various factors that could cause a landslide, such as permafrost."[https://iz.ru/892325/2019-06-24/uchenye-nazvali-mesto-vozmozhnogo-skhoda-podobnogo-bureiskomu-opolznia]
4. From the history. To the question of the name of the river.
In hydronyms, that is, the names of rivers, there is one important feature. Those are the oldest names! The city can change several names within a decade, the country - in one century, the sea - in a thousand years. But the river often retains the name obtained in ancient times.
(...)
But the name of the Amur river has a more complex origin. The Mongols call it Hara-Muren - "black big river flowing into the sea." They call her the word ... "Amour" ("river"), Nanai - "Mother" ("muddy").
There are several rivers in Siberia whose names end in "ya". In the far East it is-Zeya and Bureya, in Western Siberia - Tea (in the Tomsk region), cue and just Yaya (Kemerovo region). There is a high probability that the basis of these names is the Mansi "ya" - "river". (...)" [http://www.ng.ru/science/2019-06-25/15_7606_river.html]
У гидронимов, то есть названий рек, есть одна важная особенность. Это самые старые имена! Город может сменить несколько названий в течение десятилетия, страна - за один век, море - за тысячу лет. А вот река нередко сохраняет имя, полученное в незапамятные времена.
(...)
А вот имя реки Амур имеет более сложное происхождение. Монголы называют ее Хара-Мурэн - 'черная большая река, впадающая в море'. Эвенки зовут ее словом 'Амар' или 'Амур' ('река'), нанайцы - 'Маму' ('мутная').
Есть в Сибири и несколько рек, имена которых оканчиваются на '-я'. На Дальнем Востоке это - Зея и Бурея, в Западной Сибири - Чая (в Томской области), Кия и просто Яя (Кемеровская область). Здесь велика вероятность того, что в основе этих названий находится мансийское 'я' - 'река'. (...)' [http://www.ng.ru/science/2019-06-25/15_7606_river.html]]
5. New (/interesting/curious/) terms on topic.
5.1. "The opening in the body of the landslide" https://tass.ru/nauka/6583025) - apparently, this is another name of the proran channel, created by the military and other specialists, and expanded naturally.
1) Research continues. We have heard about "reports". Some reports even seem to have been read out. In any case, the report was reported by journalists. Where can people find the texts of these reports?
Now received information about the "model'...
Until now - after a lot of studies - there is no answer to a simple question.
The crux of the issue. If the mountain mass "descends" into the river gradually and slowly (graduality and slowness of the movement of "rock mass" are typical for most landslides), the water in the river is displaced.
Example. You fill granulated sugar in a cup of tea. In normal option such action does not lead to a significant indignation of liquid in a cup.
In order for the wave to rise, the rock mass must be relatively large volumes and must move at a high speed.
Example. You want to do an experiment. You take, for example, a slingshot and a piece of pressed sugar of cubic form (parallelogram form) - a solid standard piece of sugar from a standard pack of refined sugar. A Cup for the experiment, it is better to use of a plastic or of a metal. Having poured in a Cup of tea, you shoot from a slingshot in a Cup a piece of refined sugar. In a high probability, part of the liquid will spill out of the Cup after a piece of sugar will enter into the liquid at a high speed. The high speed of the object and its relatively large (for a Cup) volume will do the trick.
So: at what speed had to move the mountain mass to raise the wave, which is now called "river tsunami"?
Reports have been drawn up, a "model" has been prepared - but there is no answer to a quite natural question.
2) for me, the importance of another simple question is obvious. How significantly has expanded created by the military engineers the channel? (in absolute and relative terms)?
Additional question. What are the trends of its expansion in a natural way - that is, the erosion of the dam? Do the remains of the dam create a "backwater" effect [threshold, doorstep] on the movement of river water?
Previously, such a theory was put forward by respected "scientists": the dam creates a "backwater" effect, there, there are additional risks of flooding Chekunda. Because of a "backwater" effect Chekunda is in a particularly dangerous state. About 330 million rubles for the "resettlement" of the inhabitants of Chekunda are needed.
Now there is reason to assume that the remains of a spontaneous dam of a "backwater" effect do not create. ("The water levels in the upper and lower bays [parts of the river] are equal.')
Risks of flooding (to some extent) have always been. But, in any case, the additional risks caused by the remains of the dam - now, it seems, no longer.
Or about this theory quietly forgotten and "moved" to the 3D model, which "will bring" 330 million?
Or "additional" risks caused by the remnants of the dam remain the same?
3. As for the expeditions and additional studies of "landslide".
I admit there's a temptation to call this activity - the attempts of additional a pumping out of money. But this temptation must be fought. Any research is helpful.
However, dear "scientist" Makhinov - he began to state, to speak out the views not today. Both his ideas, and its forecasts can be tracked on the media report and news agencies. Now we will not repeat them and to reproduce in detail.
For the sake of a variety I will remind of its useful forecasts and statements in initial days of actions of engineering troops of Russia for creation a proran [channel]:
"https://amurmedia.ru/news/777693/?from=31
Scientists have not ruled out the collapse of the second part of the hill on the Burea in the Khabarovsk krai after the explosion
#БурейскийМетеорит [# Bureameteorite]
January 15 [2019], 10:30
'... if they blow up the formed dam, the remaining part of the hill may collapse into the water as a result of the explosion. There is a high probability that this will happen," Makhinov said. (...)
Also he noted that in case of a new landslide to the river, like the first time, the big wave can rise.
"Today we made measurements and came to the conclusion that at that time the wave height was not less than 50 meters. And if there is an explosion and the surviving part of the hill falls, the tsunami will be lower," the source said.
Earlier it was reported that wave height at the collapse of the hill in water was 40 meters, it demolished at the roots trees on the opposite river bank"" [https://amurmedia.ru/news/777693/?from=31]
Readers are not (all) employees of Feb RAS, and not all can make a 3D model of the landslide. But all of them can create logical model - in what position, situation dear "scientist" Makhinov (by such forecasts and statements) put command of the group formed on the river bank Bureya for overcoming emergency situation.
Objective orientation of these statements what? To stop works, to evacuate group?
Good help of "science". The "science" facilitate the elimination of consequences of emergency situations on the river Bureya!
I complete, for a time, the citating "from Makhinov" ...
It is today, when the creation of channel is completed, and completed safely, all these words look relatively harmless...
On January 15, 2019 ahead there were risks, uncertainty, resistance to pseudoscientific chatter, ability not to be intimidated and not to be tangled, not to be confused, it is a lot of work, it is a lot of courage and a lot of heroism (and great skills, unique qualification of military engineers) ...
New expeditions and new research are not carried out at the expense of patrons and not at the personal expense of "researchers". Perhaps Livingston and carried out expeditions at his own expense and at the expense of patrons. If not Livingston, then some of the other researchers...
But as for modern "characters" of a scientific scene, it is improbable that they participated in expeditions and conducted researches for the personal account and at the expense of patrons (though, some personal money once and was, perhaps, are spent ... somebody, perhaps, from patrons ... declared themselves).
Money, as a rule, is mainly of budgetary origin...
Therefore, the citizens of Russia have the right to know not about the greatness of all or individual employees of the Feb RAS or their enormous competence. The citizens of Russia have the right to read reports and materials that are compiled according to the results of expeditions and research.
Judging by the publications, the far Eastern publications willingly place the statements, for example, of the respected "scientist" makhinov. It would be natural to make one of the publications, at least in part, with the information on Internet addresses where " reports "and" results "of studies could be found.
On June 27, 2019 12:58
Translation from Russian into English: June 27, 2019 16:03.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Рассказ об интересе к Бурейской теме 27 июня 2019 г.'.