Аннотация: The Story about the causes of the Bureya events that occurred on December 12, 2018
The Story about the causes of the Bureya events that occurred on December 12, 2018
"The natural dam" and spontaneous reservoir appeared on the Bureya River, probably, on December 12, 2018 (data of space monitoring).
Many people are interested in: what are the causes of these events?
The interest is understandable.
First, a human - is inquisitive.
Secondly, a human - is careful. He seeks to find out "mechanism" of events and to modify the activity.
Thirdly, a human is practical. Events took place "in itself"? Or they are result of someone's acts?
In the media (in the 20s of December 2018) there were reports of a fallen meteorite. It seems that the source of these reports was the interpretation of space monitoring data in combination with the reproduction of the opinion of local residents who saw the natural dam on the Bureya river in the early 20th of December 2018.
So, the first version is a version of a meteorite.
Something this version was not pleasant to someone. (This version drew excessive attention to events? Induced to look for the meteorite remains?)
There was a meteorite or was not?
In (scientific) comments about lack of a meteorite I personally felt some not finality, some innuendo. Somewhere behind all these opinions it was guessed: meteorites are different (including - unique).
Anyway the version of a meteorite was rejected.
There was a version of "landslide" (the landslide became the reason of emergence of a natural dam).
"Advantage" of the version of "landslide": "landslide" is something uninteresting. In "landslide" there is no space origin, far wanderings, flight, a fiery sparkling, explosion.
If objections against the version of a meteorite were distributed between group of speakers, the version of the landslide was voiced, mainly by one of the local scientists. He made reference to the opinion of some foreign colleague. Later this version was replicated with references to the opinion of local scientist.
Idea was such. For a number of reasons, part of the hill (mountains) came down ("moved out", collapsed) in the Bureya River. A natural dam appeared.
I dared to doubt the version of "landslide". "You look at the video footage and try to imagine a horizontal line drawn along the crest of a natural dam. There seems to be a rather long wavy line. You ask yourself the question: what, under the influence of gravity, a bits, a parts of the hill could so undulating stretch across the river? Some uncertainty, doubts ... " [on December 26, 2018]. "The tumbled-down trees on the area nearly 1.7 sq.km - it is a result of a landslide? Then it is necessary to correlate two concepts somehow: "a landslide" (dangerous geomorphological phenomenon, displacement of rock masses on the slope under the influence of its own weight and additional load due to the erosion of the slope, waterlogging, seismic shocks and other processes) and "the tumbled-down trees" (if they are tumbled down, then roots on the place? And the essential shift of the soil is absent? The tumbled-down trees are located on the horizontal plane or on a slope?)" [on December 27, 2018].
The local worker of science or in response to my objections, or "so it turned out" put forward counterarguments (about "a river tsunami 40 meters high").
"KHABAROVSK, Dec 28-RIA Novosti ..." that fallen forest on the opposite Bank of the river, at first thought it was before the landslide. But it seemed the height is large, and the mayor of the district insisted that there the forest was before the landslide. I know a Professor wrote that the landslide should be with a splash of water, because he fell into the water. Then I compared photos, and found traces of this phenomenon which irrefutably indicate that at falling of the landslide there was a splash of water. And its height was up to 40 meters. She [the wave] moved to the other side, demolished all the trees under the root, and the wave rose through the valley of the Middle Sandar (tributary of the Bureya) on four kilometers upstream. The tsunami in the far Eastern taiga is such an incredible anomaly," Makhinov said. [Deputy Director of the Institute of water and environmental problems of the far Eastern branch of RAS, doctor of geographical Sciences Alexey Makhinov]. [https://ria.ru/20181228/1548844331.html].
I did not agree and with these counter-arguments. "Curious concept (hypothesis). What has to be the speed of "landslide" to lift a wave 40 meters high? The landslide is after all, a landslide, but not the high-speed device...
Then let's discuss, for example, a difference between the concepts "landslide" and "falling" ... Whether though "falling" will be able to lift a wave 40 meters high?... It what has to fall? Well not a meteorite?..."
"Mentally imagine an experiment. In a large bowl, pour water. Then in the middle of a bowl you pour a hill of grits (for example, some grain). Partially this hill of grain rises above water. Then take a spoon and move the grits from under the hill (at the base of the hill). Grits from the top of the hill and from the" slope " begins to pour (to fall down, to drop) into the water. Primitive? But no matter how primitive, is clear that the grits should shift down with tremendous speed and with enormous energy in order to raise any significant wave.
Wave of 40 meters?.. Capable of breaking trees?..
Landslide by its very nature "moves" more or less gradually, consistently..."[29 December 2018 ]
I thought that? or "it happened"? that after this exchange of views information activity of the local worker of science decreased (temporarily?) up to zero.
In general, there is an own awkwardness because of own irony.
First, all have the right to "mental passion", to the statement of the wrong opinion. (How to distinguish "mental passion" from the consolidated position focused not on public interests, and by the movement of financial flows?).
Secondly, anyway, (suddenly) (thanks to Alexey Makhinov? However, this version can be distinguished in the stories by locals, the first seen a natural dam) there appeared a version of a wave (let and not an air wave, but a river wave, but nevertheless - powerful (enormous power) wave).
Before the most New Year's holidays there was one more version which I apprehended as "cheerful". "Conspiracy theorists produce all new and new versions. The one of the last - it was our super-weapon Avangard which, according to conspiracy theorists, was started actually not 26, and on December 12 and which did not reach any Kamchatka, and reached only Bureya" [https://todaykhv.ru/news/incident/17775/;? On December 30, 2018 04:00?].
Further New Year's holidays and a "natural" (?) pause in discussion of a subject followed.
It seems, in some publications the attempt "to pass" from the term "meteorite" to the term "space body" was observed ...
Personally I had a feeling that the Bureya events, which took place on December 12, 2018, is a difficult complex of circumstances. Perhaps, both "landslide", and "wave", and something else were involved in them ... But this feeling was so general what to publish it seemed to me inappropriate.
On January 10, 2019, practically along with the message about introduction of the emergency mode in Verkhnebureinsky district of Khabarovsk Krai, I read a number of the new articles devoted to the Bureya events.
In this number of publications my attention was drawn by material "The Bureya Anomaly Which Can Not Be Explained Yet Haunts Locals" (09-01-2019/18:01:56) [https://www.province.ru/habarovsk/podrobnosti/burejskaya-anomaliya-kotoruyu-poka-ne-mogut-ob-yasnit-ne-daet-pokoya-mestnym-zhitelyam.html].
"In the pictures taken by hunters and rescuers it is visible that the hill, which top is demolished, is a low. If on it there was a landslide, then a mass of bits of rock without having created effect of dynamic blow, just would slip down to the bed of the river, having dammed it no more than on several tens of meters. And in this case as though took out a bits of rock by a powerful blow or the directed explosion on 400 meters across the riverbed of Bureya, and the dam rises above the water surface in a number of places at 160 meters. Besides, the possibility of a landslide in granite breed in a 20-degree frost raises great doubts.
According to the President of the Academy of real policy, an expert of the Academy of military Sciences Vladimir PROKHVATILOV, the lack of a funnel in the place of the fall of the "meteorite" can be explained by the fact that he slipped on the hill and demolished its top, fell into the river. Judging by the photos, an unidentified flying object fell with a glide path of no more than 10-15 degrees, and the funnel should be searched at the bottom of the river. The fault in the earth's crust in this case could occur due to the fact that the" meteorite " broke through the river bottom and exposed the mud volcano that was there.
- We, of course, do not exclude the fall of some technical means, but, as a rule, they fall vertically. Here it was visible that the object came under a big angle, - I declared to journalists and the head of the Verkhnebureinsky area Alexey MASLOV.
From the "technical funds" for the hill, mentioned by the official, the fulfilled missile stage could fall, but it unless would scratch its top. And starts from Vostochny Cosmodrome, nearby, in December were not. As Vladimir PROKHVATILOV noted, it is theoretically possible to set off, of course, the directed explosion of huge power, which would throw out rock across the river. However the whole railway echelon of explosive for this purpose would be required. However, according to the expert, to refuse the version of explosion still prematurely.
The Japanese Himawari-8 weather satellite recorded on December 12 at 09:50 in this area the thermal anomaly, which, according to experts, and became the reason of the blockage of river.
But explosion is thermal anomaly too".
So, the complex version appears: "demolition of top of the hill" - "landslide" - "emission of rock across the river" - "a funnel into a river bed" - "the fault in the earth's crust" - "mud volcano" ... The term "unidentified flying object" is used ...
This version is how exact?
It drew my attention with the fact that it leaves, it directs from the simplified scheme of events and does attempt to formulate a picture of difficult, complex interaction of circumstances and the phenomena.
Will there be an update? Will there be changes of versions?
Curiosity, the desire to know the truth - one of the features of a human...
January 11, 2019 10:31
Translation from Russian into English: January 11, 2019 12:17.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Рассказ о причинах Бурейских событий, произошедших 12 декабря 2018 года".