# The Frosty Secret of Economic Success. An Economic Hypothesis

de Overwood Henry

MMMDCLXXXIX. The Frosty Secret of Economic Success. An Economic Hypothesis. - August 18, 2025.

The Frosty Secret of Economic Success. An Economic Hypothesis.


A few days ago, a figure (digits) was announced on the radio: the total amount of investment in the Northern Sea Route was named.


It is difficult to perceive figures by ear, but a figure was announced - several trillion US dollars.


In order not to artificially 'inflate' the figures (in the absence of a written source of information), we will take one (1) trillion dollars as the basis for calculations.


With this assumption and with the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at 18 percent per annum (a benchmark for investment profitability), we get the average annual income: 1,000,000,000,000 multiplied by 0.18 equals 180,000,000,000 (one hundred eighty billion) dollars (per year).


A reference: 180,000,000,000 multiplied by 80 (the approximate ruble to dollar exchange rate; that is, 80 rubles for 1 dollar) equals 14,400,000,000,000 (fourteen trillion four hundred billion) rubles. With an approximate size of the annual state budget revenue of about 40 trillion rubles, the potential income from the Northern Sea Route (NSR) makes up almost half of the budget revenue. If the income from the NSR, by its nature, is not included in the budget revenue (the question is theoretical, debatable; the question is whether it is budgetary or extra-budgetary income (?)), then it is clear why, with a budget deficit, it's possible to look forward with a confidence.


The above calculation can become an explanation for those statements by important people who call for an increase in pension payments and for a decrease in the retirement age. This calculation is also an explanation for other positive economic news and phenomena.


If the figure characterizing the amount of investment in NSR was announced on the radio, then the fact of receiving income from NSR was not announced on the radio. This doubt can be answered by reminding one of a simple practical economic rule: any valuable asset - and a value of investments in NSR is beyond doubt - can become collateral for obtaining a loan (credit). That is, even if the cash flow is currently absent, it is quite possible to obtain credit resources (under a valuable asset) from a serious capital holder.


The most skeptical readers will question both the assessment of investments in NSR and the possibility of monetizing these investments (through receiving 'direct income' or through arranging a loan (credit)).


I will not argue: the issue is debatable; that is why the word 'hypothesis' is present in the title of this note.


However, if we to juxtapose (correlate) the amount of investment in the NSR (announced on the radio) with widely known information about the enormous potential of the global logistics market (intercontinental traffic) (for example, more than one billion tons of transit cargo passes through the Suez Canal), then it is clear that we need to make a choice in favor of the optimistic version of the economic hypothesising.


August 18, 2025 11:46


Translation from Russian into English: August 18, 2025 13:08

Владимир Владимирович Залесский ' Морозная тайна экономической успешности. Экономическая гипотеза. '


{3718. Морозная тайна экономической успешности. Экономическая гипотеза. - 18 августа 2025 г.

MMMDCLXXXIX. The Frosty Secret of Economic Success. An Economic Hypothesis. - August 18, 2025.


Vladimir Zalessky Internet-bibliotheca. Интернет-библиотека Владимира Залесского}